IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tky/fseres/2007cf489.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Liquidity Risk Aversion, Debt Maturity, and Current Account Surpluses: A Theory and Evidence from East Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Shin-ichi Fukuda

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Yoshifumi Kon

    (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract

After a series of crises, many developing countries came to recognize that reducing liquidity risk is an important self-protection. However, they have alternative strategies for the self-protection. The purpose of this paper is to show that macroeconomic impacts might be very different depending on which strategy developing countries will take. In the first part, we investigate what macroeconomic impacts an increased aversion to liquidity risk can have in a simple open economy model. When the government keeps foreign reserves constant, an increased aversion to liquidity risk reduces liquid debt and increases illiquid debt. However, its macroeconomic impacts are not large, causing only small current account surpluses. In contrast, when the government responds to the shock, the changed aversion increases foreign reserves and may lead to a rise of liquidity debt. In particular, under some reasonable parameter set, it causes large macroeconomic impacts, including significant current account surpluses. In the second part, we provide several empirical supports to the implications. In particular, we explore how foreign debt maturity structures changed in East Asia. We find that many East Asian economies reduced short-term borrowings temporarily after the crisis but increased short-term borrowings in the early 2000s. Since short-term debt is liquid debt, the instantaneous change after the crisis is consistent with the case where only private agents responded to increased aversion to liquidity risk. However, accompanied by substantial rises in foreign exchange reserves, the change in the early 2000s is consistent with the case where the government also started to respond. We discuss that our results have important implications for the recent deterioration in the U.S. current account.

Suggested Citation

  • Shin-ichi Fukuda & Yoshifumi Kon, 2007. "Liquidity Risk Aversion, Debt Maturity, and Current Account Surpluses: A Theory and Evidence from East Asia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-489, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2007cf489
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2007/2007cf489.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo A. Pesenti, 2007. "Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing," NBER Chapters,in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 377-456 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    3. Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca & Gust, Christopher, 2008. "Trade adjustment and the composition of trade," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2622-2650, August.
    4. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher J. Gust, 2005. "Expansionary fiscal shocks and the trade deficit," International Finance Discussion Papers 825, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    6. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 67-100, January.
    7. Linda S. Goldberg & C├ędric Tille, 2006. "The International Role of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 12495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "Savings Gluts and Interest Rates: The Missing Link to Europe," NBER Working Papers 11520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adustment under a Flexible Rate," Working Paper Series rwp04-037, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    10. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:53:y:2008:i:02:n:s0217590808002902 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Shin-Ichi Fukuda & Sanae Ohno, 2008. "Post-Crisis Exchange Rate Regimes In Asean: A New Empirical Test Based On Intra-Daily Data," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 53(02), pages 191-213.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2007cf489. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CIRJE administrative office). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ritokjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.