IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Leverage as a predictor for real activity and volatility

  • Kollmann, Robert
  • Zeugner, Stefan

This paper explores the link between the leverage of the US financial sector, of households and of non-financial businesses, and real activity. We document that leverage is negatively correlated with the future growth of real activity, and positively linked to the conditional volatility of future real activity and of equity returns. The joint information in sectoral leverage series is more relevant for predicting future real activity than the information contained in any individual leverage series. Using in-sample regressions and out-of sample forecasts, we show that the predictive power of leverage is roughly comparable to that of macro and financial predictors commonly used by forecasters. Leverage information would not have allowed to predict the ‘Great Recession’ of 2008–2009 any better than conventional macro/financial predictors.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188912000826
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 1267-1283

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:8:p:1267-1283
DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2012.03.010
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2013. "Macroprudential Policy – A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 846-878, December.
  2. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4981, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Explaining the Great Moderation: it is not the shocks," Working Paper Series 0865, European Central Bank.
  4. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian P. Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Michael B. Devereux & James Yetman, 2010. "Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Adrian, Tobias & Song Shin, Hyun, 2010. "Financial Intermediaries and Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 12, pages 601-650 Elsevier.
  7. David Aikman & Matthias Paustian, 2006. "Bank capital, asset prices and monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 305, Bank of England.
  8. Césaire Meh & Kevin Moran, 2008. "The Role of Bank Capital in the Propagation of Shocks," Staff Working Papers 08-36, Bank of Canada.
  9. Ignazio Angeloni, 2009. "A Tale of Two Policies: Prudential Regulation and Monetary Policy with Fragile Banks," Working Papers 345, Bruegel.
  10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  11. Robert KOLLMANN, 2011. "Global Banking and International Business Cycles," 2011 Meeting Papers 20, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Gregory DE WALQUE & Olivier PIERRARD & Abdelaziz ROUABAH, 2009. "Financial (in)stability, supervision and liquidity injections : a dynamic general equilibrium approach," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009006, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  13. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2015. "Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11016, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  15. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Forecast Evaluation of Small Nested Model Sets," NBER Working Papers 14601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Huizinga, Harry & Laeven, Luc, 2009. "Accounting discretion of banks during a financial crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
  18. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "Forecasting with Many Predictors," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  19. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, 09.
  20. von Peter, Goetz, 2009. "Asset prices and banking distress: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 298-319, September.
  21. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Financial intermediation, asset prices, and macroeconomic dynamics," Staff Reports 422, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  22. Ali Dib, 2010. "Banks, Credit Market Frictions, and Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 10-24, Bank of Canada.
  23. Skander Van den Heuvel, 2005. "The Welfare Cost of Bank Capital Requirements," 2005 Meeting Papers 880, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  24. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599 Elsevier.
  25. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2009. "Pitfalls in estimating asymmetric effects of energy price shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 970, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. In't Veld, Jan & Raciborski, Rafal & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2011. "The recent boom-bust cycle: The relative contribution of capital flows, credit supply and asset bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 386-406, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:8:p:1267-1283. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.