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The New Member States and the Process towards EMU

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  • José García-Solanes
  • Ramón María-Dolores

Abstract

The authors apply two complementary empirical criteria to eight new member states (NMSs) of the European Union to assess how ready they are to adopt the euro. As a first step, they recover demand and supply shocks and calculate the social losses implied by the two relevant exchange rate regimes: flexible rates and currency board. As a second step, the authors calculate the real exchange rates variability that these countries are currently experiencing and compare it to that of three Mediterranean countries during a similar period before they joined the EMU. The combination of the results of both tests shows that Estonia and Slovenia are the only countries that seem ready to adopt the euro within the shortest period of time foreseen by the Maastricht criteria; that is, after the two mandatory years in the ERM2. The rest of the countries will probably still need some exchange rate flexibility to absorb external shocks in the coming years. Copyright © 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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  • José García-Solanes & Ramón María-Dolores, 2008. "The New Member States and the Process towards EMU," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 655-667, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:12:y:2008:i:3:p:655-667
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vaubel, Roland, 1978. "Real exchange-rate changes in the European community : A new approach to the determination of optimum currency areas," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 319-339, May.
    2. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    3. Tamim Bayoumi, 1992. "The Effect of the ERM on Participating Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 330-356, June.
    4. Roland Vaubel, 1976. "Real exchange-rate changes in the European community: The empirical evidence and its implications for European currency unification," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 112(3), pages 429-470, September.
    5. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
    6. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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