IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Demand shocks and trade balance dynamics

  • José García-Solanes

    (Universidad de Murcia)

  • Jesús Rodríguez

    (Universidad Pablo de Olavide)

  • José L. Torres

    (Universidad de Málaga)

This paper studies the current account dynamics in the G-7 countries plus Spain. We estimate a SVAR model which allows us to identify three different shocks: supply shocks, real demand shocks and nominal shocks. We use a different identification procedure from previous work based on a microfounded stochastic open-economy model in which the real exchange rate is a determinant of the Phillips curve. Estimates from a structural VAR show that real demand shocks explain most of the variability of current account imbalances, whereas, contrary to previous findings, nominal shocks play no role. The results we obtain are consistent with the predictions of a widely set of open-economy models and illustrate that demand policies are the main responsible of trade imbalances.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.aeefi.com/RePEc/pdf/defi07-04.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales in its series Working Papers with number 07-04.

as
in new window

Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aee:wpaper:0704
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.aeefi.com

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Elliott, Graham & Fatas, Antonio, 1996. "International business cycles and the dynamics of the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 361-387, February.
  2. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 92-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Eswar Prasad, 1999. "International Trade and the Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 99/56, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers Series 76, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  6. Menzie David Chinn & Jaewoo Lee, 2002. "Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in the G-7 Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/130, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
  8. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J., 2010. "Productivity shocks, budget deficits and the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1562-1579, December.
  9. Clarida, R. & Gali, J., 1993. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," Discussion Papers 1993_25, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  10. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Erratum to "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market": [Journal of International Economics 50 (2000) 214-244]," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 207-208, October.
  11. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
  12. Kano, Takashi, 2008. "A structural VAR approach to the intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 757-779, September.
  13. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the US Trade Deficit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 363-397, December.
  14. Bankim Chadha & Eswar Prasad, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 328-355, September.
  15. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2000. "Money, interest rates, and exchange rates with endogenously segmented markets," Staff Report 278, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  16. Joseph W. Gruber & Steven B. Kamin, 2005. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," International Finance Discussion Papers 846, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
  18. Robert Lucas & Mike Golosov, 2004. "Menu Costs and Phillips Curves," 2004 Meeting Papers 144, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  19. Mathias Hoffmann, 2003. "International macroeconomic fluctuations and the current account," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 401-420, May.
  20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  21. Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 2003. "Evaluating the Calvo model of sticky prices," Working Paper Series WP-03-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  22. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Expansionary fiscal shocks and the trade deficit," International Finance Discussion Papers 825, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  23. Martine Durand & Christophe Madaschi & Flavia Terribile, 1998. "Trends in OECD Countries' International Competitiveness: The Influence of Emerging Market Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 195, OECD Publishing.
  24. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  25. Faik Koray & W. Douglas McMillin, . "Fiscal Shocks, the Trade Balance, and the Exchange Rate," Departmental Working Papers 2006-02, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
  26. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: a new open economy model for policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 835, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  27. Eswar S. Prasad & Jeffery A. Gable, 1998. "International Evidence on the Determinants of Trade Dynamics," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(3), pages 401-439, September.
  28. Burstein, Ariel T., 2006. "Inflation and output dynamics with state-dependent pricing decisions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1235-1257, October.
  29. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  30. Leonardo Bartolini & Amartya Lahiri, 2006. "Twin deficits, twenty years later," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Oct).
  31. Detken, Carsten & Gaspar, Vítor, 2003. "Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?," Working Paper Series 0241, European Central Bank.
  32. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
  33. Massimo Giuliodori, 2004. "Nominal shocks and the current account: A structural VAR analysis of 14 OECD countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(4), pages 569-591, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aee:wpaper:0704. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jose L. Torres)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.