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A Preliminary Evaluation of Monetary Policy Rules for Russia

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  • Lucio Vinhas de Souza

    (Kiel Institute for World Economics IfW)

Abstract

The paper reviews the recent conduct of monetary policy and the central bank’s rule-based behavior in Russia. Using different policy rules, we test whether the central bank in Russia reacts to changes in inflation, output gap and the exchange rate in a consistent and predictable manner. Our results indicate that during the period of 1993-2002 the Bank of Russia has used monetary aggregates as a main policy instrument in conducting monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucio Vinhas de Souza, 2004. "A Preliminary Evaluation of Monetary Policy Rules for Russia," Macroeconomics 0403017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0403017
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 28
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0403/0403017.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
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    4. Richard H. Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1997. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 363-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Elisabetta Falcetti & Martin Raiser & Peter Sanfey, 2000. "Defying the odds: initial conditions, reforms and growth in the first decade of transition," Working Papers 55, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
    6. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Torres, Alberto, 2003. "Monetary policy and interest rates: evidence from Mexico," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 357-379, December.
    8. W. A. Razzak, 2003. "Is the Taylor Rule Really Different from the McCallum Rule?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(4), pages 445-457, October.
    9. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
    10. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
    11. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    12. Taylor, John B. (ed.), 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226791258, December.
    13. Marek Dabrowski & Wojciech Paczynski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz, 2002. "Inflation and Monetary Policy in Russia: Transition Experience and Future Recommendations," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0241, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    14. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    15. Detken, Carsten & Gaspar, Ví­tor, 2003. "Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?," Working Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2005. "Monetary Policy Transmission and Bank of Russia Monetary Policy," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2005/02, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2005.
    2. Khurshid Kiani, 2011. "Fluctuations in Economic and Activity and Stabilization Policies in the CIS," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 193-220, February.
    3. Starr, Martha A., 2005. "Does money matter in the CIS? Effects of monetary policy on output and prices," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 441-461, September.
    4. Sardor Sadykov, 2018. "The Modified Taylor Rule For Bank Of Uzbekistan On The Basis Of Mode Switching," Economics and Management, Faculty of Economics, SOUTH-WEST UNIVERSITY "NEOFIT RILSKI", BLAGOEVGRAD, vol. 14(2), pages 100-110.
    5. Fedorova, E. & Mukhin, A. & Dovzhenko, S., 2016. "Modeling Rules of Monetary Policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation with the Financial Stress Index," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 84-105.
    6. Charemza, Wojciech W. & Makarova, Svetlana, 2005. "Ex-ante dynamics of real effects of monetary policy : theory and evidence for Poland and Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    7. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2013. "Money Supply and Monetary Policy in Russia: A Post-Keynesian Approach Revisited," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series Ec-04/13, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
    8. repec:zbw:bofitp:2005_020 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy rules; exchange rate; central bank; Russia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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