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Ex-ante dynamics of real effects of monetary policy : theory and evidence for Poland and Russia

Listed author(s):
  • Charemza, Wojciech W.
  • Makarova, Svetlana

The paper proposes a new indicator of expected real effects of a policy aimed at controlling inflation.The indicator, called real effect of inflation targeting (REIT), involves the comparison of expected and output-neutral inflation.It is shown that it can be derived from a simple two-dimensional vector autoregressive model of inflation and output gap.The microdynamics of such model are explained in terms of the foundations of Taylor-type staggered wage contracts.It is assumed that the monetary authority has some discretion regarding the timing of monetary actions.Here REIT can be used to set the optimal times for such actions, if the control of output is regarded as a secondary policy target.A simulation experiment illustrates the rationale of such a device for timing monetary measures.The REIT has been used by the Polish Monetary Policy Council since 2001 in it's inflation targeting and is thought to have contributed to a substantial decline in Polish inflation in 2003 and to an increase in output growth in 2004.A similar indicator computed for Russia as a means of monitoring monetary policy rather than as an active tool confirms that active expansionary policy in 2002 and 2003 might have contributed to Russian economic growth in 2004 and 2005, whereas similar policy measures for 2004 are likely to prove ineffective.

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File URL: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/123456789/8031/1/121701.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 20/2005.

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Date of creation: 30 Dec 2005
Handle: RePEc:bof:bofitp:2005_020
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Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland

Phone: + 358 9 183 2268
Fax: + 358 9 183 2294
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  1. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
  2. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-113, May.
  3. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lucio, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 484-499, September.
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  8. Engin Kara & Huw Dixon, 2005. "Persistence and Nominal Inertia in a Generalized Taylor Economy: How Longer Contracts Dominate Shorter Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 87, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Christine Gartner & Gert Wehinger, 1998. "Core Inflation in Selected European Union Countries," Working Papers 33, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  10. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
  11. Dixon, Huw & Kara, Engin, 2005. "Persistence and nominal inertia in a generalized Taylor economy: how longer contracts dominate shorter contracts," Working Paper Series 489, European Central Bank.
  12. Karl Whelan, 2007. "Staggered Price Contracts And Inflation Persistence: Some General Results," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 111-145, 02.
  13. Whelan, Karl, 2004. "Staggered price contracts and inflation persistence: some general results," Working Paper Series 417, European Central Bank.
  14. Arrazola, Maria & de Hevia, Jose, 2002. "An alternative measure of core inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 69-73, March.
  15. Gert Wehinger, 2000. "Causes of Inflation in Europe, the United States and Japan: Some Lessons for Maintaining Price Stability in the EMU from a Structural VAR Approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 83-107, March.
  16. Wojciech W Charemza & Svetlana Makarova, 2006. "Ex ante Dynamics of Real Effects of Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence for Poland and Russia, 2001–2003," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 458-479, September.
  17. Ascari, Guido, 2000. "Optimising Agents, Staggered Wages and Persistence in the Real Effects of Money Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 664-686, July.
  18. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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