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The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on UK Exports to EU Countries

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  • Glauco De vita
  • Andrew Abbott

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on UK exports to European Union (EU) countries by means of a newly developed ARDL bounds testing procedure to cointegration. Using monthly data disaggregated by market of destination and sectors for the period 1993ml to 2001m6, our results indicate that UK exports to the EU14, at both aggregate and sectoral level, are generally income elastic, relative price inelastic and largely unaffected by short-term exchange rate volatility. Re-estimation of the model using a long-term measure of volatility, however, provides evidence supporting the hypothesis that exchange rate uncertainty has a negative and significant influence on UK exports to EU countries. Copyright (c) Scottish Economic Society 2004.

Suggested Citation

  • Glauco De vita & Andrew Abbott, 2004. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on UK Exports to EU Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(1), pages 62-81, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:51:y:2004:i:1:p:62-81
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Pino & Dilara Tas & Subhash C. Sharma, 2016. "An investigation of the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports in East Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(26), pages 2397-2411, June.
    2. Hasanov Akram, 2011. "Exchange rate risk and trade flows: the case of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 11/09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    3. Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon & Jane Korinek, 2011. "To What Extent Do Exchange Rates and their Volatility Affect Trade?," OECD Trade Policy Papers 119, OECD Publishing.
    4. Frömmel, Michael & Garabedian, Garo & Schobert, Franziska, 2011. "Monetary policy rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the exchange rate matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 807-818.
    5. Byrne, Joseph P. & Darby, Julia & MacDonald, Ronald, 2008. "US trade and exchange rate volatility: A real sectoral bilateral analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 238-259, March.
    6. Verheyen, Florian, 2011. "Bilateral exports from Euro Zone countries to the US: Does exchange rate variability play a role?," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 121, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    7. Goudarzi, Mostafa & Khanarinejad, Komeil & Ardakani, Zahra, 2012. "Investigation the Role of Exchange Rate Volatility on Iran's Agricultural Exports (Case Study: Date, Pistachio and Saffron)," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 4(1), March.
    8. Lira SEKANTSI, 2011. "The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on South African Exports to the United States (U.S.): A Bounds Test Approach," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 8, pages 119-139, December.
    9. repec:eee:touman:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:226-233 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Tassos G. Anastasatos & Ian R. Davidson, 2006. "How Homogenous are Currency Crises? A Panel Study Using Multiple-Response Models," Working Papers 52, Bank of Greece.
    11. Stavarek, Daniel, 2006. "Ability of the New EU Member States to Fulfill the Exchange Rate Stability Convergence Criterion," MPRA Paper 1202, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Masatci, Kaan & Pılbeam, Keith, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from the MINT countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 133-140.
    13. Mekbib Gebretsadik Haile & Geoff Pugh, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 321-350, April.
    14. P., Srinivasan & M., Kalaivani, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Growth in India: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 43828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Sanidas, Elias & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2006. "The Consequences of Trade Liberalisation on the Australian Passenger Motor Vehicle Industry," Economics Working Papers wp06-01, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    16. repec:ris:ecoint:0803 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Verheyen, Florian, 2012. "Bilateral exports from euro zone countries to the US — Does exchange rate variability play a role?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 97-108.
    18. repec:got:cegedp:121 is not listed on IDEAS

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