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Financial asset prices, linear and nonlinear policy rules. An In-sample assessment of the reaction function of the South African Reserve Bank

Author

Listed:
  • Ruthira Naraidoo

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Kasai Ndahiriwe

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

In this paper we provide an in-sample assessment of how the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) sets policy rate in the context of both linear and nonlinear Taylor type rule models of monetary policy. Given the controversial debate on whether central banks should target asset prices for economic stability, we investigate whether the SARB policy-makers pay close attention to asset and financial markets in its policy decisions. The main findings are that the nonlinear Taylor rule improves its performance with the advent of the financial crisis, providing the best description of in-sample SARB interest rate setting behaviour. The SARB policy-makers pay close attention to the financial conditions index when setting interest rate. The SARB’s response of monetary policy to inflation is greater during business cycle recessions with not much weight on output and seems to place high importance on inflationary pressures of output during boom periods. The 2007-2009 financial crisis witnesses an overall decreased reaction to inflation, output and financial conditions amidst increased economic uncertainty, with a shift from an asymmetric response to financial conditions over recessions to a more symmetric response irrespectively of the state of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruthira Naraidoo & Kasai Ndahiriwe, 2010. "Financial asset prices, linear and nonlinear policy rules. An In-sample assessment of the reaction function of the South African Reserve Bank," Working Papers 201006, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201006
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    Cited by:

    1. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity prices since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," MPRA Paper 76542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Asymmetric Pass-through Effects from Monetary Policy to Housing Prices in South Africa," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 16(2 (Summer), pages 123-140.
    3. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2015. "Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(2), pages 176-196, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; nonlinearity; financial conditions index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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