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Do Real Balance Effects Invalidate the Taylor Principle in Closed and Open Economies?

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  • Stephen McKnight
  • Alexander Mihailov

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="ecca12134-abs-0001"> This paper examines the determinacy implications of forecast-based monetary policy rules that set the interest rate in response to expected future inflation in a Neo-Wicksellian model that incorporates real balance effects. We show that the presence of such effects in closed economies restricts the ability of the Taylor principle to prevent indeterminacy of the rational expectations equilibrium. The problem is exacerbated in open economies, particularly if the policy rule reacts to consumer-price, rather than domestic-price, inflation. However, determinacy can be restored in both closed and open economies with the addition of monetary policy inertia.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov, 2015. "Do Real Balance Effects Invalidate the Taylor Principle in Closed and Open Economies?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 938-975, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:82:y:2015:i:328:p:938-975
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov & Antonio Pompa Rangel, 2016. "What do Latin American inflation targeters care about? A comparative Bayesian estimation of central bank preferences," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2016-08, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    2. Stephen McKnight, 2016. "Investment and forward-looking monetary policy: A Wicksellian solution to the problem of indeterminacy," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2016-02, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    3. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov & Kerry Patterson & Fabio Rumler, 2014. "The Predictive Performance of Fundamental Inflation Concepts: An Application to the Euro Area and the United States," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2014-03, Henley Business School, Reading University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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