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The mechanics of devaluations and the output response in a DSGE model: how relevant is the balance sheet effect?

  • Camilo E Tovar

The relative importance of different mechanisms through which devaluations affect output are analyzed using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy with imperfect competition and nominal rigidities. Devaluations are defined as an increase in the central bank's nominal exchange rate target, which induces a decrease in the nominal interest rate. Three main mechanisms through which devaluations affect output are considered: The traditional expansionary expenditure-switching effect, the balance sheet effect which allows the possibility of contractionary effects when firms' debt are dollar-denominated, and a monetary channel associated with an interest rule that targets the nominal exchange rate. The model is calibrated and simulated under alternative scenarios of exchange rate regimes and shocks. Devaluations are found to be expansionary despite the contractionary balance sheet effect. In response to adverse external shocks the economy's output response improves with a devaluation the less flexible the exchange rate regime is.

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Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 192.

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Length: 73 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:192
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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," NBER Working Papers 4693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 7869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ratna Sahay & Deepak Mishra & Poonam Gupta, 2003. "Output Response to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/230, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  6. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers Series 76, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Paul R. Bergin, 2004. "How Well Can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics Explain the Exchange Rate and Current Account?," NBER Working Papers 10356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  10. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Camilo E Tovar, 2006. "Devaluations, output and the balance sheet effect: a structural econometric analysis," BIS Working Papers 215, Bank for International Settlements.
  12. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 243-262, December.
  13. Hairault, J.O. & Portier, F., 1992. "Money New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Business Cycles," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 92.32, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  14. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2002. "IS-LM-BP in the Pampas," NBER Working Papers 9337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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