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Macroeconomic Effects of Banking-Sector Losses across Structural Models

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Guerrieri

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Matteo Iacoviello

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Francisco Covas

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • John C. Driscoll

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Mohammad Jahan-Parvar

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Michael Kiley

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Albert Queralto

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Jae Sim

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

The macroeconomic effects of capital shortfalls in the financial intermediation sector are compared across five dynamic equilibrium models for policy analysis. Although all the models considered share antecedents and a methodological core, each model emphasizes different transmission channels. This approach delivers model-based confidence intervals for the real and financial effects of shocks originating in the financial sector. The width of 90 percent confidence interval for the GDP response to a banking-sector shock produced by a VAR is comparable to the range of outcomes featured in our model-comparison exercise.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Guerrieri & Matteo Iacoviello & Francisco Covas & John C. Driscoll & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Michael Kiley & Albert Queralto & Jae Sim, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Banking-Sector Losses across Structural Models," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 137-204, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2019:q:3:a:5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Covas, Francisco, 2006. "Uninsured idiosyncratic production risk with borrowing constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2167-2190, November.
    2. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    3. Rui Albuquerque & Martin Eichenbaum & Victor Xi Luo & Sergio Rebelo, 2016. "Valuation Risk and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(6), pages 2861-2904, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fève, Patrick & Sanchez, Pablo Garcia & Moura, Alban & Pierrard, Olivier, 2021. "Costly default and skewed business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    3. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, April.
    4. Hirschbühl, Dominik & Krustev, Georgi & Stoevsky, Grigor, 2020. "Financial drivers of the euro area business cycle: a DSGE-based approach," Working Paper Series 2475, European Central Bank.
    5. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar & Jokivuolle, Esa & Ristolainen, Kim, 2020. "Are bank capital requirements optimally set? Evidence from researchers’ views," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Gete, Pedro, 2018. "Lending standards and macroeconomic dynamics," Working Paper Series 2207, European Central Bank.
    7. David Aikman & Jonathan Bridges & Anil Kashyap & Caspar Siegert, 2019. "Would Macroprudential Regulation Have Prevented the Last Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 107-130, Winter.
    8. Hamed Ghiaie, 2017. "Credit Crunch On Financial Intermediary," THEMA Working Papers 2017-09, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    9. Aikman, David & Bluwstein, Kristina & Karmakar, Sudipto, 2021. "A tail of three occasionally-binding constraints: a modelling approach to GDP-at-Risk," Bank of England working papers 931, Bank of England.
    10. Matthieu Darracq Paries & Pascal Jacquinot & Niki Papadopoulou, 2016. "Parsing Financial Frictions Underlying Bank Lending Fragmentation during the Euro Area Crisis," Working Papers 2016-07, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    11. Wieland, V. & Afanasyeva, E. & Kuete, M. & Yoo, J., 2016. "New Methods for Macro-Financial Model Comparison and Policy Analysis," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1241-1319, Elsevier.
    12. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar & Jokivuolle, Esa & Ristolainen, Kim, 2020. "Are bank capital requirements optimally set? Evidence from researchers’ views," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    13. Matthieu Darracq Paries & Pascal Jacquinot & Niki Papadopoulou, 2016. "Parsing Financial Frictions Underlying Bank Lending Fragmentation during the Euro Area Crisis," Working Papers 2016-7, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    14. Fève, Patrick & Sanchez, Pablo Garcia & Moura, Alban & Pierrard, Olivier, 2021. "Costly default and skewed business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    15. Gulan, Adam & Jokivuolle, Esa & Verona, Fabio, 2022. "Optimal bank capital requirements: What do the macroeconomic models say?," BoF Economics Review 2/2022, Bank of Finland.
    16. Yoo, Jinhyuk, 2017. "Capital injection to banks versus debt relief to households," IMFS Working Paper Series 111, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    17. Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2015. "Bond markets and monetary policy dilemmas for the emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 508, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Jacquinot, Pascal & Papadopoulou, Niki, 2016. "Parsing financial fragmentation in the euro area: a multi-country DSGE perspective," Working Paper Series 1891, European Central Bank.
    19. Meeks, Roland, 2017. "Capital regulation and the macroeconomy: Empirical evidence and macroprudential policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 125-141.
    20. Matthieu Darracq Paries & Peter Karadi & Christoffer Kok & Kalin Nikolov, 2022. "The Impact of Capital Requirements on the Macroeconomy: Lessons from Four Macroeconomic Models of the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(5), pages 1-50, December.
    21. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_010 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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