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The Time-Varying Phillips Correlation

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  • LUCA BENATI

Abstract

We use complex demodulation techniques to investigate changes in the correlation between real activity and inflation at the business-cycle frequencies in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, and 10 other Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries over the post-WWII era. Consistent with the analysis of Ball, Mankiw, and Romer (1988) we document a positive correlation between the time-varying average gain of real activity onto inflation at the business-cycle frequencies and inflation's Hodrick-Prescott trend, which is compatible with New Keynesian theories emphasizing the link between trend inflation, the frequency of price adjustments, and the slope of the Phillips trade-off. Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University.

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  • Luca Benati, 2007. "The Time-Varying Phillips Correlation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1275-1283, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:39:y:2007:i:5:p:1275-1283
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    Cited by:

    1. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Expectations Impact on the Effectiveness of the Inflation-Real Activity Trade-Off," MPRA Paper 35482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Benati, Luca, 2010. "Evolving Phillips trade-off," Working Paper Series 1176, European Central Bank.
    3. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Regime Switching in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Non-zero Steady-state Inflation Rate," MPRA Paper 35481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2007. "State-dependency and firm-level optimization: a contribution to Calvo price staggering," Working Paper Series 806, European Central Bank.
    5. Castillo, Paul & Montoya, Jimena & Quineche, Ricardo, 2016. "From the “Great Inflation” to the “Great Moderation” in Peru: A Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions Analysis," Working Papers 2016-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    6. Benjamin Wong, 2013. "The Evolution of the U.S. Output-Inflation Tradeoff," CAMA Working Papers 2013-70, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2015. "Flattening of the Phillips curve under low trend inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 87-90.
    8. Benati, Luca, 2009. "Long run evidence on money growth and inflation," Working Paper Series 1027, European Central Bank.
    9. Gbaguidi, David, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119, mars.
    10. Kristian Jönsson, 2010. "Trend extraction with a judgement-augmented hodrick–prescott filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 703-711, December.
    11. Pavel Gertler & Boris Hofmann, 2016. "Monetary facts revisited," BIS Working Papers 566, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Peter Mcadam & Alpo Willman, 2010. "Arrow-Calvo Price Staggering," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 556-581, December.
    13. Andrea Vaona, 2008. "Inflation persistence, structural breaks and omitted variables: a critical view," Quaderni della facoltà di Scienze economiche dell'Università di Lugano 0802, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.

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