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Early warning models for bank supervision: Simpler could be better

Author

Listed:
  • Julapa Jagtiani
  • James Kolari
  • Catharine Lemieux
  • G. Hwan Shin

Abstract

Can computer-based models, using publicly available information, be used as off-site early warning systems (EWS) to identify banks that will become inadequately capitalized in the near future? The EWS models analyzed in this article are able to detect the early onset of financial distress one year in advance with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Although simple EWS models do as well as or better than more sophisticated ones, more sophisticated models could provide detailed information about individual bank strengths and weaknesses.

Suggested Citation

  • Julapa Jagtiani & James Kolari & Catharine Lemieux & G. Hwan Shin, 2003. "Early warning models for bank supervision: Simpler could be better," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 49-60.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2003:i:qiii:p:49-60:n:v.27no.3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gerhard Hambusch & Sherrill Shaffer, 2012. "Forecasting Bank Leverage," CAMA Working Papers 2012-56, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Gerhard Hambusch & Sherrill Shaffer, 2016. "Forecasting bank leverage: an alternative to regulatory early warning models," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 38-69, August.
    3. Li, Guo & Shaffer, Sherrill, 2015. "Reciprocal brokered deposits, bank risk, and recent deposit insurance policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 366-384.
    4. repec:eee:finsta:v:30:y:2017:i:c:p:181-191 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Anatoly Peresetsky & Alexandr Karminsky & Sergei Golovan, 2011. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 297-334, November.
    6. Peresetsky, A. A., 2011. "What factors drive the Russian banks license withdrawal," MPRA Paper 41507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Felix Ward, 2014. "Spotting the Danger Zone - Forecasting Financial Crises with Classification Tree Ensembles and Many Predictors," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse01_2014, University of Bonn, Germany.
    8. Harlan L. Etheridge & Kathy H. Y. Hsu, 2015. "Minimizing the Costs of Using Models to Assess the Financial Health of Banks," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 5(11), pages 9-18, November.
    9. Kimmel, Randall K. & Thornton, John H. & Bennett, Sara E., 2016. "Can statistics-based early warning systems detect problem banks before markets?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 190-216.
    10. repec:hal:journl:halshs-01281948 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Zeineb Affes & Rania Hentati-Kaffel, 2016. "Predicting US banks bankruptcy: logit versus Canonical Discriminant analysis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01281948, HAL.
    12. Guo Li & Lee Sanning & Sherrill Shaffer, 2009. "Statistical Opacity In The U.S. Banking Industry," CAMA Working Papers 2009-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Oet, Mikhail V. & Bianco, Timothy & Gramlich, Dieter & Ong, Stephen J., 2013. "SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4510-4533.
    14. Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2013. "Modeling reasons for Russian bank license withdrawal: Unaccounted factors," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 30(2), pages 49-64.
    15. Shu Hui Lan & Jia Yi Cheng & Sheng Guo, 2016. "How to Build up the Loan - Evaluation System toward Small and Medium Enterprises between Taiwan and China’s Commercial Banks? The Application for Multi Criteria Decision Making," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(3), pages 121-142, March.
    16. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Shaffer, Sherrill, 2007. "Equity duration and convexity when firms can fail or stagnate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 233-241, December.
    18. K. Batu Tunay, 2010. "Banking Crises and Early Warning Systems: A Model Suggestion for Turkish Banking Sector," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 4(1), pages 9-46.
    19. Radu Muntean, 2009. "Early Warning Models for Banking Supervision in Romania," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 39, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
    20. Mehrez Ben Slama & Dhafer Saidane & Hassouna Fedhila, 2012. "How to identify targets in the M&A banking operations? Case of cross-border strategies in Europe by line of activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 209-240, February.

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    Keywords

    Bank supervision;

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