Forecasting Bank Leverage
Standard early warning models to predict bank failures cannot be estimated during periods of few or zero failures, precluding any updating of such models during times of good performance. Here we address this problem using an alternative approach, forecasting the simple leverage ratio (equity/assets) as a continuous variable that does not suffer from the small sample problem. Out-of-sample performance shows some promise as a supplement to the standard approach, despite measurable deterioration in prediction accuracy during the crisis years.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +61 2 6125 4705
Fax: +61 2 6125 5448
Web page: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shaffer, Sherrill, 2012.
"Bank failure risk: Different now?,"
Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 613-616.
- DeYoung, Robert, 2003. " De Novo Bank Exit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 711-28, October.
- Marco Arena, 2005.
"Bank Failures and Bank Fundamentals: A Comparative Analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the Nineties using Bank-Level Data,"
05-19, Bank of Canada.
- Arena, Marco, 2008. "Bank failures and bank fundamentals: A comparative analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the nineties using bank-level data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 299-310, February.
- Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995.
"Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September.
- Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1993. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Financial Industry Studies Working Paper 93-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1993. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Espahbodi, Pouran, 1991. "Identification of problem banks and binary choice models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 53-71, February.
- Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1995. "FIMS: a new monitoring system for banking institutions," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 1-15.
- de Haan, Jakob & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2012. "Size and earnings volatility of US bank holding companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3008-3016.
- Sala-i-martin, X., 1995.
"The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis,"
734, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "The classical approach to convergence analysis," Economics Working Papers 117, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000.
"Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1995. "Why do banks disappear? The determinants of U.S. bank failures and acquisitions," Working Papers 1995-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
- Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
- Cole, Rebel A. & White, Lawrence J., 2010.
"Déjà vu all over again: The causes of U.S. commercial bank failures this time around,"
24690, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jul 2010.
- Rebel Cole & Lawrence White, 2012. "Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Causes of U.S. Commercial Bank Failures This Time Around," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 5-29, October.
- DeYoung, Robert & Hasan, Iftekhar, 1998. "The performance of de novo commercial banks: A profit efficiency approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 565-587, May.
- Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
- Julapa Jagtiani & James Kolari & Catharine Lemieux & Hwan Shin, 2003. "Early warning models for bank supervision: Simpler could be better," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 49-60.
- Meyer, Paul A & Pifer, Howard W, 1970. "Prediction of Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 853-68, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cama Admin)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.