IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ijfiec/v26y2021i3p3504-3543.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relevance of size in predicting bank failures

Author

Listed:
  • Basim Alzugaiby
  • Jairaj Gupta
  • Andrew Mullineux
  • Rizwan Ahmed

Abstract

Employing a statistical model‐building strategy, this study aims to analyse the United States' bank failures across different size categories (small, medium, and large). Our results suggest that factors associated with bank failures vary across respective size categories, and the average marginal effects (AMEs) of mutually significant covariates also exhibit significant variability across different size classes of banks. The results are robust to up‐to 3 years of lagged regression estimates, various control variables, interaction between bank size and bank charter, alternative bank size classifications, and macroeconomic crisis periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Basim Alzugaiby & Jairaj Gupta & Andrew Mullineux & Rizwan Ahmed, 2021. "Relevance of size in predicting bank failures," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3504-3543, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:26:y:2021:i:3:p:3504-3543
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.1973
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1973
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ijfe.1973?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September.
    2. Bertay, Ata Can & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2013. "Do we need big banks? Evidence on performance, strategy and market discipline," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 532-558.
    3. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
    4. Allen N. Berger & Christa H. S. Bouwman, 2009. "Bank Liquidity Creation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3779-3837, September.
    5. Repullo, Rafael, 2004. "Capital requirements, market power, and risk-taking in banking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 156-182, April.
    6. Acharya, Viral & Naqvi, Hassan, 2012. "The seeds of a crisis: A theory of bank liquidity and risk taking over the business cycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 349-366.
    7. Climent, Francisco & Momparler, Alexandre & Carmona, Pedro, 2019. "Anticipating bank distress in the Eurozone: An Extreme Gradient Boosting approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 885-896.
    8. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
    9. Imbierowicz, Björn & Rauch, Christian, 2014. "The relationship between liquidity risk and credit risk in banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 242-256.
    10. Liu, Wai-Man & Ngo, Phong T.H., 2014. "Elections, political competition and bank failure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 251-268.
    11. Betz, Frank & Oprică, Silviu & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2014. "Predicting distress in European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 225-241.
    12. Chernykh, Lucy & Cole, Rebel A., 2015. "How should we measure bank capital adequacy for triggering Prompt Corrective Action? A (simple) proposal," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 131-143.
    13. De Haan, Jakob & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2012. "Bank size, market concentration, and bank earnings volatility in the US," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 35-54.
    14. Rebel Cole & Lawrence White, 2012. "Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Causes of U.S. Commercial Bank Failures This Time Around," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 5-29, October.
    15. Amelia Pais & Philip A. Stork, 2013. "Bank Size and Systemic Risk," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(3), pages 429-451, June.
    16. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    17. De Jonghe, Olivier & Diepstraten, Maaike & Schepens, Glenn, 2015. "Banks’ size, scope and systemic risk: What role for conflicts of interest?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S1), pages 3-13.
    18. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
    19. DeYoung, Robert, 2003. "The failure of new entrants in commercial banking markets: a split-population duration analysis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 7-33.
    20. DeYoung, Robert & Torna, Gökhan, 2013. "Nontraditional banking activities and bank failures during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 397-421.
    21. Loutskina, Elena, 2011. "The role of securitization in bank liquidity and funding management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 663-684, June.
    22. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2010. "Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 315-324, October.
    23. Bryant, John, 1980. "A model of reserves, bank runs, and deposit insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 335-344, December.
    24. Laeven, Luc & Ratnovski, Lev & Tong, Hui, 2016. "Bank size, capital, and systemic risk: Some international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(S1), pages 25-34.
    25. Allen N. Berger & Robert DeYoung & Hesna Genay & Gregory F. Udell, 1999. "Globalization of financial institutions: evidence from cross-border banking performance," Working Paper Series WP-99-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    26. Allen N. Berger & Björn Imbierowicz & Christian Rauch, 2016. "The Roles of Corporate Governance in Bank Failures during the Recent Financial Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 729-770, June.
    27. Meyer, Paul A & Pifer, Howard W, 1970. "Prediction of Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 853-868, September.
    28. Klaus Schaeck, 2008. "Bank Liability Structure, FDIC Loss, and Time to Failure: A Quantile Regression Approach," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 33(3), pages 163-179, June.
    29. Hong, Han & Huang, Jing-Zhi & Wu, Deming, 2014. "The information content of Basel III liquidity risk measures," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 91-111.
    30. Arena, Marco, 2008. "Bank failures and bank fundamentals: A comparative analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the nineties using bank-level data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 299-310, February.
    31. de Haan, Jakob & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2012. "Size and earnings volatility of US bank holding companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3008-3016.
    32. Tian, Shaonan & Yu, Yan & Guo, Hui, 2015. "Variable selection and corporate bankruptcy forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 89-100.
    33. Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
    34. Tigran Poghosyan & Martin Čihak, 2011. "Determinants of Bank Distress in Europe: Evidence from a New Data Set," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 163-184, December.
    35. Jin, Justin Yiqiang & Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Lobo, Gerald J., 2011. "Ability of accounting and audit quality variables to predict bank failure during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2811-2819, November.
    36. Angbazo, Lazarus, 1997. "Commercial bank net interest margins, default risk, interest-rate risk, and off-balance sheet banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 55-87, January.
    37. Jairaj Gupta & Andros Gregoriou & Tahera Ebrahimi, 2018. "Empirical comparison of hazard models in predicting SMEs failure," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 437-466, March.
    38. Fan J. & Li R., 2001. "Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1348-1360, December.
    39. Khan, Muhammad Saifuddin & Scheule, Harald & Wu, Eliza, 2017. "Funding liquidity and bank risk taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 203-216.
    40. Demsetz, Rebecca S & Strahan, Philip E, 1997. "Diversification, Size, and Risk at Bank Holding Companies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 300-313, August.
    41. De Haas, Ralph & Ferreira, Daniel & Taci, Anita, 2010. "What determines the composition of banks' loan portfolios? Evidence from transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 388-398, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Saifuddin Khan, 2018. "The Role of Liquidity in Financial Intermediation," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2018.
    2. Manthoulis, Georgios & Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Galariotis, Emilios, 2020. "An ordinal classification framework for bank failure prediction: Methodology and empirical evidence for US banks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 786-801.
    3. Assaf, A. George & Berger, Allen N. & Roman, Raluca A. & Tsionas, Mike G., 2019. "Does efficiency help banks survive and thrive during financial crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 445-470.
    4. Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I., 2018. "To be bailed out or to be left to fail? A dynamic competing risks hazard analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 61-85.
    5. Imbierowicz, Björn & Rauch, Christian, 2014. "The relationship between liquidity risk and credit risk in banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 242-256.
    6. Li Xian Liu & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2021. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Synthesis of Literature and Directions for Future Research," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    7. Zheng, Chen & (Wai Kong) Cheung, Adrian & Cronje, Tom, 2019. "The moderating role of capital on the relationship between bank liquidity creation and failure risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. Khan, Muhammad Saifuddin & Scheule, Harald & Wu, Eliza, 2017. "Funding liquidity and bank risk taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 203-216.
    9. Chiorazzo, Vincenzo & D'Apice, Vincenzo & DeYoung, Robert & Morelli, Pierluigi, 2018. "Is the traditional banking model a survivor?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 238-256.
    10. Zuzana Fungacova & Ms. Rima A Turk & Laurent Weill, 2015. "High Liquidity Creation and Bank Failures: Do They Behave Differently?," IMF Working Papers 2015/103, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Koresh Galil & Margalit Samuel & Offer Moshe Shapir & Wolf Wagner, 2023. "Bailouts and the modeling of bank distress," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 7-30, February.
    12. Chen, Hsiao-Jung & Lin, Kuan-Ting, 2016. "How do banks make the trade-offs among risks? The role of corporate governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 39-69.
    13. Fungacova, Zuzana & Turk, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2021. "High liquidity creation and bank failures," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    14. Jorge E. Galán, 2021. "CREWS: a CAMELS-based early warning system of systemic risk in the banking sector," Occasional Papers 2132, Banco de España.
    15. Mikko Makinen & Laura Solanko, 2018. "Determinants of Bank Closures: Do Levels or Changes of CAMEL Variables Matter?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(2), pages 3-21, June.
    16. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
    17. Balla, Eliana & Mazur, Laurel C. & Prescott, Edward Simpson & Walter, John R., 2019. "A comparison of community bank failures and FDIC losses in the 1986–92 and 2007–13 banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-15.
    18. Allen N. Berger & Björn Imbierowicz & Christian Rauch, 2016. "The Roles of Corporate Governance in Bank Failures during the Recent Financial Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 729-770, June.
    19. Vincent Bouvatier & Michael Brei & Xi Yang, 2014. "Bank Failures and the Source of Strength Doctrine," Working Papers hal-04141351, HAL.
    20. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Turk-Ariss, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2013. "Does excessive liquidity creation trigger bank failures?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:26:y:2021:i:3:p:3504-3543. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.