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Determinants of Bank Closures: Do Levels or Changes of CAMEL Variables Matter?

Author

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  • Mikko Makinen

    (BOFIT, Bank of Finland)

  • Laura Solanko

    (BOFIT, Bank of Finland)

Abstract

This study examines the role of levels and changes in bank balance sheet variables in explaining bank closure. Using a unique set of monthly bank-level panel data from Russia, we estimate determinants of bank license withdrawals during 2013M7-2017M7. We make two key findings. First, changes in CAMEL indicators are always significantly correlated with probability of bank closure, and the magnitude of parameter estimates decreases with the lag length. Second, while the one-month lagged levels of capital, earnings, and liquidity are significantly associated with the probability of bank closure in the subsequent month, the level of liquidity is the only significant indicator for longer lags. Our key contribution that changes in CAMEL variables matter more than levels is robust to various robustness checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikko Makinen & Laura Solanko, 2018. "Determinants of Bank Closures: Do Levels or Changes of CAMEL Variables Matter?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(2), pages 3-21, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:77:y:2018:i:2:p:3-21
    DOI: 10.31477/rjmf.201802.03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Denis Shibitov & Mariam Mamedli, 2019. "The finer points of model comparison in machine learning: forecasting based on russian banks’ data," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps43, Bank of Russia.
    2. Mamonov, M., 2020. "Price interactions in the credit market and banks instability over the crisis and non-crisis periods in the Russian economy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 65-110.
    3. Sarbjit Singh Oberoi & Sayan Banerjee, 2023. "Bankruptcy Prediction of Indian Banks Using Advanced Analytics," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 22-41.
    4. A.V. Larionov, 2020. "Assessing the Financial Stability of Insurance Companies by Analyzing the Dynamics of Cash Flows," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 19(2), pages 208-224.
    5. Evžen Kočenda & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2022. "Bank survival around the world: A meta‐analytic review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 108-156, February.
    6. Lev Fomin, 2019. "Do Higher Interest Rates on Loans and Deposits and Advertising Spending Cuts Forecast Bank Failures? Evidence from Russia," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(2), pages 94-112, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank closure; bank failure; CAMEL indicators; Russia's banking sector;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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