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The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis

Author

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  • Jarko Fidrmuc

    () (Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany
    CESifo, Munich, Germany
    Institute for Eastern European Studies, Regensburg, Germany
    Comenius University Bratislava, Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics, Slovakia)

  • Philipp J. Süss

    () (UniCredit Bank AG Munich, Germany)

Abstract

Owing to a combination of domestic, regional and international factors, Russian banks have been strongly influenced by the worldwide financial crisis which started in the second half of 2008. In this paper, we estimate an early warning model for the Russian banking crisis. In a first step, we identify 47 Russian banks which failed after September 2008. Using the Bankscope dataset, we then show that balance sheet indicators were informative as early as in 2006 and 2007 about possible failures of these banks. Especially equity, net interest revenues, return on average equity, net loans, and loan loss reserves are identified as the early indicators with high predictive power.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarko Fidrmuc & Philipp J. Süss, 2011. "The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 046-063, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:aucocz:au2011_046
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
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    7. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 68-83, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Deryugina, Elena B. & Ponomarenko, Alexey A., 2011. "Identifying structural shocks behind loan supply fluctuations in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Vernikov, Andrei, 2017. "The impact of state-controlled banks on the Russian banking sector," MPRA Paper 77155, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking and financial crisis; early warning models; Russia; logit;

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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