Drivers of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries: Evidence from a FAVAR analysis
We investigate the likely sources of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) over the last dec-ade (1999-2010). Evidence is based on country VARs augmented by a regional com-mon factor structure (FAVAR model). The models include nominal exchange rates, the common factor of exchange rates in the CIS countries, and international drivers such as global trade, share prices, and oil price. Global, regional and idiosyncratic shocks are identified in a standard Cholesky fashion. Their relevance for exchange rates is ex-plored by a decomposition of the variance of forecast errors. The impact of global shocks to in the developments of exchange rates has increased, in particular, if financial shocks are considered. Because of the financial crisis, regional shocks have become more important at the expense of global shocks.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Landshuter Str. 4, 93047 Regensburg|
Phone: +49-(0)941-943 54 10
Fax: +49-(0)941-943 54 27
Web page: http://www.ios-regensburg.de
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000.
"Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
440, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
- Fidrmuc, Jan & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2000.
"Disintegration and Trade,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2641, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Jan Fidrmuc, 2000. "Disintegration and Trade," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 353, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Disintegration and trade," ZEI Working Papers B 24-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Jan Fidrmuc, 2001. "Disintegration and Trade," LICOS Discussion Papers 9901, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
- Zuzana Fungáčová & Laura Solanko, 2009.
"Risk-taking by Russian banks: Do location, ownership and size matter?,"
Chapters in SUERF Studies,
SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- Fungáčová Z. & Solanko L., 2009. "Risk-taking by Russian banks: do location, ownership and size matter?," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 13(1), pages 101-129.
- Fungáčová, Zuzana & Solanko, Laura, 2008. "Risk-taking by Russian banks : do location, ownership and size matter?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2000.
"Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies: The case of Ploand and Hungary,"
ZEI Working Papers
B 14-2000, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-275, June.
- Balazs Egert & Carol S. Leonard, 2007.
"Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is it real?,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1961, CESifo Group Munich.
- Bal??zs ??gert & Carol S. Leonard, 2007. "Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is It Real?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp866, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Égert, Balázs & Leonard, Carol S., 2007. "Dutch desease scare in Kazakhstan : is it real?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Katerina Kalcheva & Nienke Oomes, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch Disease; Does Russia Have the Symptoms?," IMF Working Papers 07/102, International Monetary Fund.
- Vladimir Chaplygin & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Monetary integration in the ex-Soviet Union: A 'union of four'? ," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(1), pages 47-68, 03.
- Gunther Schnabl, 2005.
"International Capital Markets and Exchange Rate Stabilization in the CIS,"
- Schnabl, Gunther, 2005. "International capital markets and exchange rate stabilization in the CIS," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 425-440, September.
- Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir & Tonis, Alexander, 2008. "Mechanisms of Resource Curse, Economic Policy and Growth," MPRA Paper 20570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kutan, Ali M. & Wyzan, Michael L., 2005. "Explaining the real exchange rate in Kazakhstan, 1996-2003: Is Kazakhstan vulnerable to the Dutch disease?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 242-255, June.
- Oomes, Nienke & Kalcheva, Katerina, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch disease : Does Russia have the symptoms?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ost:wpaper:289. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekaterina Selezneva)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.