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The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis

  • Fidrmuc, Jarko
  • Süß, Philipp Johann

Russian banks have been strongly influenced by the worldwide financial crisis which started in the second half of 2008. This was caused by a combination of domestic, regional and international factors. We estimate an early warning model for the Russian crisis. We identified 47 Russian banks which failed after September 2008. Using the Bankscope data set, we show that balance sheet indicators were informative about possible failures of these banks as early as 2006. The early predictive indicators include especially equity, net interest revenues, return on average equity, net loans, and loan loss reserves.

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Paper provided by University of Munich, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 10996.

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Date of creation: 17 Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:10996
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  1. Peresetsky, A. A. & Karminsky, A. M., 2011. "Models for Moody’s bank ratings," MPRA Paper 34864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  15. A. Karas & K. Schoors & G. Lanine, 2008. "Liquidity matters: Evidence from the Russian interbank market," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/520, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  16. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
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