IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2012-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bank Failure Risk: Different Now?

Author

Listed:
  • Sherrill Shaffer

Abstract

Motivated by the debate over similarities between the current and previous financial crises, logit estimates reveal significantly changed linkages between observable financial ratios and probabilities of subsequent bank failure using U.S. data from the 1980s and 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Sherrill Shaffer, 2012. "Bank Failure Risk: Different Now?," CAMA Working Papers 2012-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-06/23_shaffer_2012.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Discussion of chapter 1," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 79-81, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Discussion of chapter 4," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 295-297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Discussion of chapter 3," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 247-249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Daron Acemoglu & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Discussion of chapter 5," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 377-379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    10. Arena, Marco, 2008. "Bank failures and bank fundamentals: A comparative analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the nineties using bank-level data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 299-310, February.
    11. Daron Acemoglu & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Discussion of chapter 2," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 165-167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. DeYoung, Robert, 2003. "De Novo Bank Exit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 711-728, October.
    13. Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1995. "FIMS: a new monitoring system for banking institutions," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 1-15.
    14. Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 27(Q I), pages 21-31.
    15. Daron Acemoglu & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Discussion of chapter 6," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 471-473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 2008. "Is the US too big to fail?," MPRA Paper 12976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gerhard Hambusch & Sherrill Shaffer, 2012. "Forecasting Bank Leverage," Working Paper Series 176, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Evžen Kočenda & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2022. "Bank survival around the world: A meta‐analytic review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 108-156, February.
    3. Doug Dyer & Majdi Quttainah & Pengfei Ye, 2015. "Privatization, intermediation and performance: global evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 207-229, December.
    4. Chernykh, Lucy & Cole, Rebel A., 2015. "How should we measure bank capital adequacy for triggering Prompt Corrective Action? A (simple) proposal," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 131-143.
    5. Dong Jin Shin & Brian H.S. Kim, 2017. "Impacts of household loan regulation on financial stability: evidence from Korea," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 31(1), pages 53-65, May.
    6. Felix Noth & Lena Tonzer, 2017. "Bank risk proxies and the crisis of 2007/09: a comparison," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(7), pages 498-501, April.
    7. Gerhard Hambusch & Sherrill Shaffer, 2016. "Forecasting bank leverage: an alternative to regulatory early warning models," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 38-69, August.
    8. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Witkowski, Bartosz, 2022. "Regulation and supervision of the European banking industry. Does one size fit all?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 113-129.
    9. Krause, Thomas & Sondershaus, Talina & Tonzer, Lena, 2017. "Complexity and bank risk during the financial crisis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 118-121.
    10. Cebula, Richard J. & Xu, Jiay, 2023. "A Brief Survey of Recent Studies of Bank Failures in the U.S," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 76(2), pages 265-274.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gerhard Hambusch & Sherrill Shaffer, 2012. "Forecasting Bank Leverage," Working Paper Series 176, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Lin, Ching-Chung & Yang, Shou-Lin, 2016. "Bank fundamentals, economic conditions, and bank failures in East Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 960-966.
    3. Gerhard Hambusch & Sherrill Shaffer, 2016. "Forecasting bank leverage: an alternative to regulatory early warning models," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 38-69, August.
    4. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Turk-Ariss, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2013. "Does excessive liquidity creation trigger bank failures?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders, 2021. "Predictors of bank distress: The 1907 crisis in Sweden," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Turk-Ariss, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2013. "Does excessive liquidity creation trigger bank failures?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    7. Guo Li & Lee Sanning & Sherrill Shaffer, 2009. "Statistical opacity in the US banking sector," CAMA Working Papers 2009-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Zuzana Fungacova & Ms. Rima A Turk & Laurent Weill, 2015. "High Liquidity Creation and Bank Failures: Do They Behave Differently?," IMF Working Papers 2015/103, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Evžen Kočenda & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2022. "Bank survival around the world: A meta‐analytic review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 108-156, February.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Fungacova, Zuzana & Turk, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2021. "High liquidity creation and bank failures," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    12. repec:erf:erfstu:78 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Cole, Rebel A. & Wu, Qiongbing, 2009. "Is hazard or probit more accurate in predicting financial distress? Evidence from U.S. bank failures," MPRA Paper 24688, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2010.
    14. Kočenda, Evžen & Iwasaki, Ichiro, 2020. "Bank survival in Central and Eastern Europe," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 860-878.
    15. Sanders, Austen & Willison, Matthew, 2021. "Measure for measure: evidence on the relative performance of regulatory requirements for small and large banks," Bank of England working papers 922, Bank of England.
    16. Francis, William, 2014. "UK deposit-taker responses to the financial crisis: what are the lessons?," Bank of England working papers 501, Bank of England.
    17. Matthew Jaremski & David C. Wheelock, 2020. "Banking on the Boom, Tripped by the Bust: Banks and the World War I Agricultural Price Shock," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1719-1754, October.
    18. Cullen F. Goenner, 2020. "Uncertain times and early predictions of bank failure," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 583-601, November.
    19. Chiaramonte, Laura & Casu, Barbara, 2017. "Capital and liquidity ratios and financial distress. Evidence from the European banking industry," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 138-161.
    20. Betz, Frank & Oprică, Silviu & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2014. "Predicting distress in European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 225-241.
    21. Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I., 2018. "To be bailed out or to be left to fail? A dynamic competing risks hazard analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 61-85.
    22. Suss, Joel & Treitel, Henry, 2019. "Predicting bank distress in the UK with machine learning," Bank of England working papers 831, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cama Admin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.