IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Early warning models in real time

  • Jeffery W. Gunther
  • Robert R. Moore

Each quarter, banks file a call report, or Report of Condition and Income, containing hundreds of accounting items pertaining to their financial condition. Because call reports are filed quarterly, whereas banks are typically examined about once every twelve to eighteen months, statistical early warning models using call report data potentially provide a more up-to-date picture of a bank's condition than on-site exams alone. Often neglected, however, is the fact that call report data are subject to revision. We find evidence of a strong relationship between on-site exams and call report revisions. In addition, we evaluate a major class of early warning models using both originally published and revised data to assess whether model accuracy in real time is appreciably lower than accuracy measured using revised data. The findings indicate revised data overstate the accuracy of early warning models. The substantial effect of revisions on the accuracy of early warning models, coupled with the finding of a relationship between revisions and exams, points to a substantial auditing role for on-site exams. More generally, our findings point to the need for care in the use of call report data for research in which the real-time flow of financial information is of some concern.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Financial Industry Studies Working Paper with number 00-01.

in new window

Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:feddfi:00-01
Contact details of provider: Web page:

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Email:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Bruner, Robert F & Simms, John M, Jr, 1987. "The International Debt Crisis and Bank Security Returns in 1982," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 46-55, February.
  2. Berger, Allen N. & King, Kathleen Kuester & O'Brien, James M., 1991. "The limitations of market value accounting and a more realistic alternative," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 753-783, September.
  3. Musumeci, James J & Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1990. "The International Debt Crisis, Investor Contagion, and Bank Security Returns in 1987: The Brazilian Experience," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(2), pages 209-20, May.
  4. Rebel Cole & Jeffery Gunther, 1998. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 13(2), pages 103-117, April.
  5. Beaver, William H. & Engel, Ellen E., 1996. "Discretionary behavior with respect to allowances for loan losses and the behavior of security prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-3), pages 177-206, October.
  6. R. Alton Gilbert, 1993. "Implications of annual examinations for the Bank Insurance Fund," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 35-52.
  7. Larry D. Wall & Timothy W. Koch, 2000. "Bank loan-loss accounting: a review of theoretical and empirical evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 1-20.
  8. Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1995. "FIMS: a new monitoring system for banking institutions," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 1-15.
  9. Flannery, Mark J & Houston, Joel F, 1999. "The Value of a Government Monitor for U.S. Banking Firms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 14-34, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:feddfi:00-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Chapman)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.