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Real-time National Accounts Data

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Stone

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Sharon Wardrop

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

Quarterly national accounts data are amongst the most important and eagerly awaited economic information available, with estimates of recent growth regarded as a key summary indicator of the current health of the Australian economy. Official estimates of quarterly output are, however, subject to uncertainty and subsequent revision. Hence, the official estimates of quarterly national accounts aggregates, with which policy-makers must work, may in practice be an inaccurate guide to their ‘true’ values, not just initially but even for some time after the event. In this paper we examine over 120 vintages of Australian GDP data to provide an historical assessment of the scale and persistence of real-time errors in the measurement of actual output. The issue of whether it is possible to obtain reliable real-time estimates of the output gap is addressed in detail in a companion paper (Gruen, Robinson and Stone 2002).

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Stone & Sharon Wardrop, 2002. "Real-time National Accounts Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2002-05
    as

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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2002/pdf/rdp2002-05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. David Gruen & Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2002. "Output Gaps in Real Time: Are They Reliable Enough to Use for Monetary Policy?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gunther, Jeffery W. & Moore, Robert R., 2003. "Early warning models in real time," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1979-2001, October.
    5. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "Does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 99-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David Gruen & Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2002. "Output Gaps in Real Time: Are They Reliable Enough to Use for Monetary Policy?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone & Marileze van Zyl, 2003. "The Real-time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. David Gruen & Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2005. "Output Gaps In Real Time: How Reliable Are They?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(252), pages 6-18, March.
    4. Aaron G. Grech, "undated". "Investigating potential output using the Hodrick-Prescott filter: an application for Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2014, Central Bank of Malta.
    5. Peter Tulip & Stephanie Wallace, 2012. "Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P. & Wakerly, Elizabeth C., 2011. "Real-time inflation forecast densities from ensemble Phillips curves," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 77-87, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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