A multivariate approach for identification of optimal locations with in Ethiopia’s wheat market to tackle soaring inflation on food price (Extended version)
Using Johansen (1998 and 1991) vector error correction model and related extensions optimal locations where effective stabilization intervention can be done are identified. It is found that producer centers of Shashimiene and Bale Robe and Deficit market of Jimma are the locations where effective stabilization of wheat price can be done with least cost. However the national wheat market seems to have better capacity to process shocks coming from deficit markets and central markets than surplus markets. So targeting surplus markets, though effective in long run, can result on short run increase in volatility. Moreover, even though, distance could be one factor determining the inclusion of additional markets in to the rule of one price, it was not found to be the main factor in Ethiopian wheat markets. This implies that in highly imperfect market cointegration may not be solely related to distance only. Other factors like the level of market failures and the development of complementary institutions may influence the level of cointegration. Fortunately the search procedure for boundary of markets operating under rule of one price followed by earlier papers, though theoretically unsound is observed to work in Ethiopia wheat markets.
|Date of creation:||18 Aug 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dietmar Maringer & Peter Winker, 2004. "Optimal Lag Structure Selection in VEC-Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 155, Society for Computational Economics.
- John C. Chao & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1997.
"Model Selection in Partially Nonstationary Vector Autoregressive Processes with Reduced Rank Structure,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1155, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Chao, John C. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1999. "Model selection in partially nonstationary vector autoregressive processes with reduced rank structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-271, August.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Rashid, Shahidur, 2004.
"Spatial integration of maize markets in post-liberalized Uganda,"
MTID discussion papers
71, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Shahidur Rashid, 2004. "Spatial Integration of Maize Markets in Post-liberalised Uganda," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 13(1), pages 102-133, March.
- Bruggemann, Ralf & Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2006.
"Residual autocorrelation testing for vector error correction models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 579-604, October.
- Ralf BRUEGGEMANN & Helmut LUETKEPOHL & Pentti SAIKKONEN, 2004. "Residual Autocorrelation Testing for Vector Error Correction Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/08, European University Institute.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1993.
"Cointegration and Speed of Convergence to Equilibrium,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
- Kilian, Lutz & Demiroglu, Ufuk, 2000. "Residual-Based Tests for Normality in Autoregressions: Asymptotic Theory and Simulation Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 40-50, January.
- Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995.
"Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
- Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Gonzalo and Granger JBES 1995 paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00074, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bera, Anil K. & Jarque, Carlos M., 1981. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals : Monte Carlo Evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 313-318.
- Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
- Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A.M.Robert Taylor, 2009.
"Co-integration Rank Testing under Conditional Heteroskedasticity,"
CREATES Research Papers
2009-22, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Rahbek, Anders & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010. "Cointegration Rank Testing Under Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(06), pages 1719-1760, December.
- Dessalegn, Gebremeskel & Jayne, Thomas S. & Shaffer, James D., 1998. "Market Structure, Conduct, and Performance: Constraints of Performance of Ethiopian Grain Markets," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 55597, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
- Gloria González-Rivera & Steven M. Helfand, 2001. "The Extent, Pattern, and Degree of Market Integration: A Multivariate Approach for the Brazilian Rice Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 576-592.
- Ulimwengu, John M. & Workneh, Sindu & Paulos, Zelekawork, 2009. "Impact of soaring food price in Ethiopia: Does location matter?," IFPRI discussion papers 846, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November.
- Lee, Tae-Hwy & Tse, Yiuman, 1996. "Cointegration tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 401-410, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:17960. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.