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Residual autocorrelation testing for vector error correction models

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  • Bruggemann, Ralf
  • Lutkepohl, Helmut
  • Saikkonen, Pentti

Abstract

In applied time series analysis, checking for autocorrelation in a fitted model is a routine diagnostic tool. Therefore it is useful to know the asymptotic and small sample properties of the standard tests for the case when some of the variables are cointegrated. The properties of residual autocorrelations of vector error correction models (VECMs) and tests for residual autocorrelation are derived. In particular, the asymptotic distributions of Lagrange multiplier (LM) and portmanteau tests are given. Monte Carlo simulations show that the LM tests have advantages if autocorrelation of small order is tested whereas portmanteau tests are preferable for higher order residual autocorrelation. Their critical values have to be adjusted for the cointegration rank of the system, however.
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Suggested Citation

  • Bruggemann, Ralf & Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2006. "Residual autocorrelation testing for vector error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 579-604, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:134:y:2006:i:2:p:579-604
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Helmut Lütkepohl & Ralf Brüggemann, 2006. "A small monetary system for the euro area based on German data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 683-702.
    2. Mezgebo, Taddese, 2009. "A multivariate approach for identification of optimal locations with in Ethiopia’s wheat market to tackle soaring inflation on food price (Extended version)," MPRA Paper 17960, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Arbus, Ignacio, 2009. "Departure from normality of increasing-dimension martingales," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(6), pages 1304-1315, July.
    4. Andreas Röthig, 2011. "On speculators and hedgers in currency futures markets: who leads whom?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 63-69, January.
    5. Amira El-Shal, 2012. "The Spillover Effects of the Global Financial Crisis on Economic Activity in Emerging Economies – Investigating the Egyptian Case Using the Financial Stress Index," Working Papers 737, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    6. Poulin, Jennifer & Duchesne, Pierre, 2008. "On the power transformation of kernel-based tests for serial correlation in vector time series: Some finite sample results and a comparison with the bootstrap," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(9), pages 4432-4457, May.
    7. Ida Wolden Bache, 2008. "Assessing estimates of the exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper 2007/12, Norges Bank.
    8. Catani, P.S. & Ahlgren, N.J.C., 2017. "Combined Lagrange multiplier test for ARCH in vector autoregressive models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 62-84.
    9. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 6, pages 139-164 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Ida Wolden Bache, 2006. "Assessing the structural VAR approach to exchange rate pass-through," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 309, Society for Computational Economics.
    11. Park, Byeong U. & Mammen, Enno & Härdle, Wolfgang & Borak, Szymon, 2009. "Time Series Modelling With Semiparametric Factor Dynamics," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(485), pages 284-298.
    12. Patilea, V. & Raïssi, H., 2013. "Corrected portmanteau tests for VAR models with time-varying variance," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 190-207.
    13. Mezgebo, Taddese, 2009. "A multivariate approach for identification of optimal locations with in Ethiopia’s wheat market to tackle soaring inflation on food price," MPRA Paper 18663, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jikun Huang & Jun Zhang & Scott Rozelle, 2013. "The Political Economy of Food Pricing Policy in China," Working Papers id:5317, eSocialSciences.
    15. Raja Ben Hajria & Salah Khardani & Hamdi Raïssi, 2017. "Testing the lag length of vector autoregressive models: A power comparison between portmanteau and Lagrange multiplier tests," Working Papers 2017-03, Escuela de Negocios y Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso.
    16. repec:spr:stpapr:v:58:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00362-016-0744-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2007. "Econometric Analysis with Vector Autoregressive Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/11, European University Institute.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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