IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssa/lemwps/2023-30.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Systemically important banks - emerging risk and policy responses: An agent-based investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Lilit Popoyan
  • Mauro Napoletano
  • Andrea Roventini

Abstract

We develop a macroeconomic agent-based model to study the role of systemically important banks (SIBs) in financial stability and the effectiveness of capital surcharges on SIBs as a risk management tool. The model is populated by heterogeneous firms, consumers, and banks interacting locally in different markets. In particular, banks provide credit to firms according to Basel III macro-prudential frameworks and manage their liquidity in the interbank market. The Central Bank performs monetary policy according to different types of Taylor rules. Our model endogenously generates banks with different balance sheet sizes, making some systemically important. The additional capital surcharges for SIBs prove to have a marginal effect on preventing the crisis since it points mainly to the ''too-big-to-fail'' problem with minimal importance for ''too-interconnected-to-fail'', ''too-many-to-fail'' and other issues. Moreover, we found that additional capital surcharges on SIBs do not account for the type and management strategy of the bank, leading to the ''one-size-fits-all'' problem. Finally, we found that additional loss-absorbing capacity needs to be increased to ensure total coverage of losses for failed SIBs.

Suggested Citation

  • Lilit Popoyan & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2023. "Systemically important banks - emerging risk and policy responses: An agent-based investigation," LEM Papers Series 2023/30, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2023/30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lem.sssup.it/WPLem/files/2023-30.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Presbitero, Andrea F. & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2011. "Competition and relationship lending: Friends or foes?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 387-413, July.
    2. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    3. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    4. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2017. "Rents, Technical Change, and Risk Premia Accounting for Secular Trends in Interest Rates, Returns on Capital, Earning Yields, and Factor Shares," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 614-620, May.
    5. Petr Teply & Tomas Klinger, 2019. "Agent-based modeling of systemic risk in the European banking sector," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(4), pages 811-833, December.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3qv4spsglp8tmorvev1h0duo4p is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    8. Klimek, Peter & Poledna, Sebastian & Doyne Farmer, J. & Thurner, Stefan, 2015. "To bail-out or to bail-in? Answers from an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 144-154.
    9. George M. Constantinides & John B. Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, 2002. "Junior Can't Borrow: A New Perspective on the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 269-296.
    10. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    11. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "Winter is possibly not coming: Mitigating financial instability in an agent-based model with interbank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    12. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    13. Pablo Rovira Kaltwasser & Alessandro Spelta, 2019. "Identifying systemically important financial institutions: a network approach," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 155-185, February.
    14. Helyoth Hessou & Van Son Lai, 2017. "Basel III Capital Buffer Requirements and Credit Union Prudential Regulation: Canadian Evidence," Working Papers 2017-007, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    15. Ashraf, Quamrul & Gershman, Boris & Howitt, Peter, 2017. "Banks, market organization, and macroeconomic performance: An agent-based computational analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 143-180.
    16. Ueda, Kenichi & Weder di Mauro, B., 2013. "Quantifying structural subsidy values for systemically important financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3830-3842.
    17. Moenninghoff, Sebastian C. & Ongena, Steven & Wieandt, Axel, 2015. "The perennial challenge to counter Too-Big-to-Fail in banking: Empirical evidence from the new international regulation dealing with Global Systemically Important Banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 221-236.
    18. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2013. "Taming Systemically Important Financial Institutions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45, pages 37-58, August.
    19. Drehmann, Mathias & Tarashev, Nikola, 2013. "Measuring the systemic importance of interconnected banks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 586-607.
    20. Sullivan Hué & Yannick Lucotte & Sessi Tokpavi, 2019. "Measuring network systemic risk contributions: A leave-one-out approach," Post-Print hal-03532445, HAL.
    21. William Poole, 1968. "Commercial Bank Reserve Management In A Stochastic Model: Implications For Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(5), pages 769-791, December.
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5hussro0tc951q0jqpu8quliqu is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Hué, Sullivan & Lucotte, Yannick & Tokpavi, Sessi, 2019. "Measuring network systemic risk contributions: A leave-one-out approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 86-114.
    24. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    25. Poledna, Sebastian & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & Caccioli, Fabio & Thurner, Stefan, 2021. "Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    26. Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Sandro Sapio, 2006. "Are Business Cycles All Alike? A Bandpass Filter Analysis of the Italian and US Cycles," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 87-118.
    27. Suh, Sangwon, 2019. "Asset correlation and bank capital regulation: A macroprudential perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 355-378.
    28. Su, Zhi & Xu, Fuwei, 2021. "Dynamic identification of systemically important financial markets in the spread of contagion: A ripple network based collective spillover effect approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    29. Jarrow, Robert, 2013. "A leverage ratio rule for capital adequacy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 973-976.
    30. Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Caballero, Ricardo, 2017. "Rents, Technical Change, and Risk Premia: Accounting for Secular Trends in Interest Rates, Returns to Capital, Earnings Yields," CEPR Discussion Papers 11833, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Whitesell, William, 2006. "Interest rate corridors and reserves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1177-1195, September.
    32. Balluck, Kushal, 2015. "Investment banking: linkages to the real economy and the financial system," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 55(1), pages 4-22.
    33. Buch, Claudia M. & Neugebauer, Katja, 2011. "Bank-specific shocks and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2179-2187, August.
    34. repec:cii:cepiei:2014-q2-138-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Huberto M. Ennis & John A. Weinberg, 2007. "Interest on reserves and daylight credit," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 93(Spr), pages 111-142.
    36. Poledna, Sebastian & Bochmann, Olaf & Thurner, Stefan, 2017. "Basel III capital surcharges for G-SIBs are far less effective in managing systemic risk in comparison to network-based, systemic risk-dependent financial transaction taxes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 230-246.
    37. Howitt, Peter & Clower, Robert, 2000. "The emergence of economic organization," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 55-84, January.
    38. Enrico Sette & Giorgio Gobbi, 2015. "Relationship Lending During A Financial Crisis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 453-481, June.
    39. Eser, Fabian & Carmona Amaro, Marta & Iacobelli, Stefano & Rubens, Marc, 2012. "The use of the Eurosystem's monetary policy instruments and operational framework since 2009," Occasional Paper Series 135, European Central Bank.
    40. Morten Bech & Todd Keister, 2012. "On the liquidity coverage ratio and monetary policy implementation," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    41. Nikola Tarashev & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2010. "Attributing systemic risk to individual institutions," BIS Working Papers 308, Bank for International Settlements.
    42. Howitt, Peter, 1992. "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 776-800, August.
    43. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    44. Hessou, Helyoth & Lai, Van Son, 2017. "Basel III capital buffer requirements and credit union prudential regulation: Canadian evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 92-110.
    45. Dermine, Jean, 2015. "Basel III leverage ratio requirement and the probability of bank runs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 266-277.
    46. Sylvain Benoit, 2014. "Where is the system?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 138, pages 1-27.
    47. Kleinow, Jacob & Moreira, Fernando & Strobl, Sascha & Vähämaa, Sami, 2017. "Measuring systemic risk: A comparison of alternative market-based approaches," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 40-46.
    48. Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Drumond, Inês, 2017. "Financial shocks, financial stability, and optimal Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 187-207.
    49. Shim, Jeungbo, 2013. "Bank capital buffer and portfolio risk: The influence of business cycle and revenue diversification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 761-772.
    50. López-Espinosa, Germán & Mayordomo, Sergio & Moreno, Antonio, 2017. "When does relationship lending start to pay?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 16-29.
    51. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    52. James B. Thomson, 2009. "On systemically important financial institutions and progressive systemic mitigation," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
    53. Eser, Fabian & Carmona Amaro, Marta & Iacobelli, Stefano & Rubens, Marc, 2012. "The use of the Eurosystem's monetary policy instruments and operational framework since 2009," Occasional Paper Series 135, European Central Bank.
    54. Bongini, Paola & Nieri, Laura & Pelagatti, Matteo, 2015. "The importance of being systemically important financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 562-574.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "Winter is possibly not coming: Mitigating financial instability in an agent-based model with interbank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1j4v8sl4fc9a49ankmnhv6bb6a is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5bnglqth5987gaq6dhju3psjn3 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Francesco Lamperti & Antoine Mandel & Mauro Napoletano & Alessandro Sapio & Andrea Roventini & Tomas Balint & Igor Khorenzhenko, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03399574, HAL.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5hussro0tc951q0jqpu8quliqu is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/31dhti786q9k0q2i04klh6no54 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    11. Lilit Popoyan, 2020. "Macroprudential Policy: a Blessing or a Curse?," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 11(1-2).
    12. Jean-Luc Gaffard & Mauro Napoletano, 2018. "Hétérogénéité des agents, interconnexions financières et politique monétaire : une approche non conventionnelle," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 201-231.
    13. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p6go0e900 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1gb0ntthu59j4pgf4ju708hsdv is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p6go0e900 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p6go0e900 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3qv4spsglp8tmorvev1h0duo4p is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2016. "The Short- and Long-Run Damages of Fiscal Austerity: Keynes beyond Schumpeter," International Economic Association Series, in: Joseph E. Stiglitz & Martin Guzman (ed.), Contemporary Issues in Macroeconomics, chapter 8, pages 79-100, Palgrave Macmillan.
    19. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    20. Mauro Napoletano, 2018. "A Short Walk on the Wild Side: Agent-Based Models and their Implications for Macroeconomic Analysis," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 257-281.
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5vt1fet9fq9o5pkgj2qh2vn1cm is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Alessandro Sapio, 2018. "And then he wasn't a she : Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Working Papers hal-03443464, HAL.
    23. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2020. "Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    24. Adão, Luiz F.S. & Silveira, Douglas & Ely, Regis A. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2022. "The impacts of interest rates on banks’ loan portfolio risk-taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    25. Salle, Isabelle & Seppecher, Pascal, 2018. "Stabilizing an unstable complex economy on the limitations of simple rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 289-317.
    26. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2qdhj5485p93jrnf08s1meeap9 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dcditnq6282sbu1u151qe5p7f is not listed on IDEAS
    28. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5bli88krr28f68nvhfe1qtsl9l is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2016. "Macroeconomic Policy in DGSE and Agent-Based Models Redux," Working Papers hal-03459348, HAL.
    30. Barde, Sylvain, 2020. "Macroeconomic simulation comparison with a multivariate extension of the Markov information criterion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    31. Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2018. "No man is an Island: The impact of heterogeneity and local interactions on macroeconomic dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 82-95.
    32. Ramis Khabibullin & Alexey Ponomarenko & Sergei Seleznev, 2018. "Forecasting the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation with an agent-based model," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps37, Bank of Russia.
    33. Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial instability; monetary policy; macro-prudential policy; systemically important banks; additional loss-absorbing capacity; Basel III regulation; agent-based models.;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2023/30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/labssit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.