IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/59908.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Taking Uncertainty Seriously: Simplicity versus Complexity in Financial Regulation

Author

Listed:
  • Aikman, David
  • Galesic, Mirta
  • Gigerenzer, Gerd
  • Kapadia, Sujit
  • Katsikopolous, Konstantinos
  • Kothiyal, Amit
  • Murphy, Emma
  • Neumann, Tobias

Abstract

Distinguishing between risk and uncertainty, this paper draws on the psychological literature on heuristics to consider whether and when simpler approaches may out-perform more complex methods for modelling and regulating the financial system. We find that: (i) simple methods can sometimes dominate more complex modelling approaches for calculating banks’ capital requirements, especially if limited data are available for estimating models or the underlying risks are characterised by fat-tailed distributions; (ii) simple indicators often outperformed more complex metrics in predicting individual bank failure during the global financial crisis; (iii) when combining information from different indicators to predict bank failure, “fast-and-frugal” decision trees can perform comparably to standard, but more information-intensive, regression techniques, while being simpler and easier to communicate.

Suggested Citation

  • Aikman, David & Galesic, Mirta & Gigerenzer, Gerd & Kapadia, Sujit & Katsikopolous, Konstantinos & Kothiyal, Amit & Murphy, Emma & Neumann, Tobias, 2014. "Taking Uncertainty Seriously: Simplicity versus Complexity in Financial Regulation," MPRA Paper 59908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59908
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/59908/1/MPRA_paper_59908.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vazquez, Francisco & Federico, Pablo, 2015. "Bank funding structures and risk: Evidence from the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-14.
    2. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    3. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises; The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 10/146, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Pierluigi Bologna, 2011. "Is there a role for funding in explaining recent US bank failures?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 103, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Tarullo, Daniel, 2008. "Banking on Basel: The Future of International Financial Regulation," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4235, October.
    6. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
    7. Matthew Rabin, 1998. "Psychology and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 11-46, March.
    8. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
    9. Fabio Caccioli & Matteo Marsili & Pierpaolo Vivo, 2009. "Eroding market stability by proliferation of financial instruments," Papers 0910.0064, arXiv.org.
    10. Caballero, Ricardo J & Pindyck, Robert S, 1996. "Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 641-662, August.
    11. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
    12. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    13. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
    14. Neville Arjani & Graydon Paulin, 2013. "Lessons from the Financial Crisis: Bank Performance and Regulatory Reform," Discussion Papers 13-4, Bank of Canada.
    15. Pierluigi Bologna, 2011. "Is there a role for funding in explaining recent US bank failures?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 103, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    17. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    18. Laura Martignon & Ulrich Hoffrage, 2002. "Fast, frugal, and fit: Simple heuristics for paired comparison," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 29-71, February.
    19. F. Caccioli & M. Marsili & P. Vivo, 2009. "Eroding market stability by proliferation of financial instruments," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 71(4), pages 467-479, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aikman, David & Galesic, Mirta & Gigerenzer, Gerd & Kapadia, Sujit & Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos & Kothiyal, Amit & Murphy, Emma & Neumann, Tobias, 2014. "Financial Stability Paper No 28: Taking uncertainty seriously - simplicity versus complexity in financial regulation," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 28, Bank of England.
    2. Timothy Johnson, 2015. "Reciprocity as a Foundation of Financial Economics," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 43-67, September.
    3. Timothy C. Johnson, 2013. "Reciprocity as the foundation of Financial Economics," Papers 1310.2798, arXiv.org.
    4. Aikman, David & Haldane, Andrew & Hinterschweiger, Marc & Kapadia, Sujit, 2018. "Rethinking financial stability," Bank of England working papers 712, Bank of England.
    5. Forbes, William & Hudson, Robert & Skerratt, Len & Soufian, Mona, 2015. "Which heuristics can aid financial-decision-making?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-210.
    6. Wüstenhagen, Rolf & Menichetti, Emanuela, 2012. "Strategic choices for renewable energy investment: Conceptual framework and opportunities for further research," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-10.
    7. Thierry Chauveau & Sylvain Friederich & Jérôme Héricourt & Emmanuel Jurczenko & Catherine Lubochinsky & Bertrand Maillet & Christophe Moussu & Bogdan Négréa & Hélène Raymond-Feingold, 2004. "La volatilité des marchés augmente-t-elle ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 74(1), pages 17-44.
    8. Ramiah, Vikash & Xu, Xiaoming & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Neoclassical finance, behavioral finance and noise traders: A review and assessment of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 89-100.
    9. Christine Kaufmann & Martin Weber & Emily Haisley, 2013. "The Role of Experience Sampling and Graphical Displays on One's Investment Risk Appetite," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(2), pages 323-340, July.
    10. Georg, Co-Pierre, 2014. "Contagious herding and endogenous network formation in financial networks," Working Paper Series 1700, European Central Bank.
    11. Bilel Jarraya & Abdelfettah Bouri, 2013. "A Theoretical Assessment on Optimal Asset Allocations in Insurance Industry," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 2(4), pages 30-44, October.
    12. Willem H. Buiter, 2003. "James Tobin: An Appreciation of his Contribution to Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(491), pages 585-631, November.
    13. Poghosyan, Tigran & Werger, Charlotte & de Haan, Jakob, 2016. "Size and support ratings of US banks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 236-247.
    14. Renata Rendek, 2013. "Modeling Diversified Equity Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 23, July-Dece.
    15. Venegas-Martínez, Francisco & Polanco-Gaytán, Mayrén (ed.), 2011. "Macroeconomía Estocástica," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, edition 1, volume 1, number 005, Primer se.
    16. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    17. Vazquez, Francisco & Federico, Pablo, 2015. "Bank funding structures and risk: Evidence from the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-14.
    18. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    19. Shigeta, Yuki, 2020. "Gain/loss asymmetric stochastic differential utility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    20. Sautner, Zacharias & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Stock options and employee behavior," Papers 05-26, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank regulation; financial regulation; uncertainty; simplicity; heuristics; Basel 2; risk modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59908. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.