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Simultaneous supply and demand constraints in input-output networks: The case of Covid-19 in Germany, Italy, and Spain

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  • Anton Pichler
  • J. Doyne Farmer

Abstract

Natural and anthropogenic disasters frequently affect both the supply and demand side of an economy. A striking recent example is the Covid-19 pandemic which has created severe disruptions to economic output in most countries. These direct shocks to supply and demand will propagate downstream and upstream through production networks. Given the exogenous shocks, we derive a lower bound on total shock propagation. We find that even in this best case scenario network effects substantially amplify the initial shocks. To obtain more realistic model predictions, we study the propagation of shocks bottom-up by imposing different rationing rules on industries if they are not able to satisfy incoming demand. Our results show that economic impacts depend strongly on the emergence of input bottlenecks, making the rationing assumption a key variable in predicting adverse economic impacts. We further establish that the magnitude of initial shocks and network density heavily influence model predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton Pichler & J. Doyne Farmer, 2021. "Simultaneous supply and demand constraints in input-output networks: The case of Covid-19 in Germany, Italy, and Spain," Papers 2101.07818, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2101.07818
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Trabucco & Pietro De Giovanni, 2021. "Achieving Resilience and Business Sustainability during COVID-19: The Role of Lean Supply Chain Practices and Digitalization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-19, November.
    2. Christian Diem & Andr'as Borsos & Tobias Reisch & J'anos Kert'esz & Stefan Thurner, 2021. "Quantifying firm-level economic systemic risk from nation-wide supply networks," Papers 2104.07260, arXiv.org.
    3. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi, 2022. "A regional Input-Output model of the Covid-19 crisis in Italy: decomposing demand and supply factors," LEM Papers Series 2022/04, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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