The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area
This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR model of inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap that allows for an analysis of the dynamic interrelationship between these variables. This model is estimated on aggregate euro area data, pooled euro area country data and individual country data for the period 1979–2003. The empirical results give strong support for the idea that inflation expectations are the key ingredient of the inflationary process for the whole euro area and for most individual countries as well. Inflation expectations also have a significant negative impact on output. As for the determination of inflation expectations, it turns out that they are relatively persistent, almost as persistent as output. Even so, and especially in the medium term, inflation expectations adapt to developments in both output and (actual) inflation.
|Date of creation:||31 Aug 2005|
|Note:||Type of Document - pdf; pages: 37. published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
- Stefan Gerlach & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," NBER Working Papers 8025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E O, 2002. "Money and Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Stefan Gerlach, 2001. "Money and inflation in the Euro Area: A case for monetary indicators?," BIS Working Papers 98, Bank for International Settlements.
- Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil & Song, Frank, 1995. "Are Survey Forecasts of Macroeconomic Variables Rational?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(1), pages 99-119, January.
- Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
- Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2004. "The use of real-time information in Phillips curve relationships for the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,28, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David G., 2004. "The use of real time information in Phillips curve relationships for the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 16/2004, Bank of Finland.
- Peter Tillmann, 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 463-473, December.
- Tillmann, Peter, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Leo Bonato & Robert St. Clair & Rainer Winkelmann, 1999. "Survey expectations of monetary conditions in New Zealand: determinants and implications for the transmission of policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/6, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Forsells, Magnus & Kenny, Geoff, 2002. "The rationality of consumers' inflation expectations: survey-based evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0163, European Central Bank.
- Levin, Andrew T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Natalucci, Fabio M., 2004. "Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes," Working Paper Series 383, European Central Bank.
- Padula, Mario & Backé, Peter, 2003. "Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States," Working Paper Series 222, European Central Bank.
- Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
- Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.