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Survey expectations of monetary conditions in New Zealand: determinants and implications for the transmission of policy

In this paper, we use a unique database on expected monetary conditions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Survey of Expectations to study how policy signals are transmitted. In order to exploit the ordinal nature of the data, we run an ordered probit model where expected monetary conditions are a function of expected financial market variables and some "narrative" measures of monetary policy shocks. Although conclusions about the impact of policy shocks on public's expectations are somewhat tentative, the results could be interpreted as evidence of "divergence" between the Reserve Bank's and the public's view. Overall, the paper shows that surveyed expectations contain valuable information on the transmission of monetary policy. On average, respondents place more weight on the interest rate than on the exchange rate, and particularly so in sectors that are less exposed to international trade. Moreover, the relative weights vary substantially over time as different shocks hit the economy. We test for the presence of regime shifts in expectations due to changes to either the institutional framework or the implementation system. We find a significant effect of the introduction of the Reserve Bank Act in 1989.

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File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/discussion_papers/1999/g99_6.pdf
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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number G99/6.

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Length: 22p
Date of creation: Mar 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:1999/06
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Web page: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz
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  1. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October.
  2. Economics Department, 1996. "Summary indicators of monetary conditions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 59, September.
  3. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
  4. Anonymous, 1999. "Monetary policy implementation: changes to operating procedures," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, March.
  5. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
  6. Julie Huxford & Michael Reddell, 1996. "Implementing monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 59, December.
  7. Richard Dennis, 1997. "A measure of monetary conditions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/1, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  8. Andreas Fischer & Adrian Orr, 1994. "The Determinants and Properties of Monetary Conditions: Direct Survey Evidence from New Zealand," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 150, OECD Publishing.
  9. John F. Boschen & Leonard O. Mills, 1991. "The effects of countercyclical monetary policy on money and interest rates: an evaluation of evidence from FOMC documents," Working Papers 91-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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