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Inflation targeting and inflation expectations in Mexico

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  • Carlos A. Carrasco
  • Jesus Ferreiro

Abstract

In this article we analyse inflation expectations in Mexico. After a review of the theoretical and empirical literature, we apply unit root, normality and cointegration tests to the data provided by Banco de M鸩co (Banxico) in the Survey on the Expectations of the Private Sector Economics Specialists. Our results reject the null hypothesis of normality for inflation expectations over the period 2004:01--2011:12. The exchange rate has become one of the most relevant variables in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in a small open economy. In this regard, we show the existence of a long-run relationship between nominal exchange rate and interest rate where inflation expectations matter for long-term dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos A. Carrasco & Jesus Ferreiro, 2013. "Inflation targeting and inflation expectations in Mexico," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(23), pages 3295-3304, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:23:p:3295-3304
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2012.707772
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John McDermott & Peter McMenamin, 2008. "Assessing Inflation Targeting in Latin America With a DSGE Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 469, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Mr. Scott Roger, 2009. "Inflation Targeting at 20 - Achievements and Challenges," IMF Working Papers 2009/236, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ms. Inci Ötker & Charles Freedman, 2009. "Country Experiences with the Introduction and Implementation of Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 2009/161, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carrasco, Carlos A., 2013. "El Nuevo Consenso Macroeconómico y la mediocridad del crecimiento económico en México [New Consensus Macroeconomics and the mediocrity of economic growth in Mexico]," MPRA Paper 53391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yu Chen & Apostolos Serletis, 2025. "Monetary Policy Strategies in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 1-23, February.
    3. Ashima Goyal & Prashant Parab, 2021. "Qualitative and quantitative Central Bank communications and professional forecasts: Evidence from India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-014, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    4. Yingying XU & Zhixin LIU & Jaime ORTIZ, 2018. "Actual and Expected Inflation in the U.S.: A Time-Frequency View," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 42-62, December.
    5. Julio Lopez Gallardo, Roberto Valencia Arriaga, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of high interest rate policy: Mexico’s experience," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 68(274), pages 214-237.
    6. Gabriel Rodriguez & Mauricio Alvarado, 2025. "The Inflation Uncertainty-Inflation Relationship: Time Variation Across Latin America and the G7," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2025-544, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    7. López-Martín, Bernabé & Ramírez de Aguilar, Alberto & Samano, Daniel, 2018. "Fiscal Policy and Inflation: Understanding the Role of Expectations in Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9025, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Kose, M. Ayhan & Matsuoka, Hideaki & Panizza, Ugo & Vorisek, Dana, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 13601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Nezir Köse & Emre Ünal, 2024. "The effects of the oil price and temperature on food inflation in Latin America," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 3269-3295, February.
    10. Alessandro Roncaglia, 2015. "Oil and its markets," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 68(273), pages 151-175.
    11. Reyna Vergara González & Elías Eduardo Gutiérrez Alva, 2014. "Evaluación del cumplimiento de los objetivos de inflación y el papel de las expectativas: evidencia para México, 1995-2012," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 1-32, November.
    12. Carlos A. Carrasco & Jesus Ferreiro, 2014. "Latin American inflation differentials with USA inflation: does Inflation Targeting make a difference?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 13-32, March.
    13. Pooja Kapoor & Sujata Kar, 2023. "A review of inflation expectations and perceptions research in the past four decades: a bibliometric analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 279-302, May.
    14. Harold Glenn A. Valera & Mark J. Holmes & Gazi M. Hassan, 2018. "Is inflation targeting credible in Asia? A panel GARCH approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 523-546, March.
    15. Kosta Josifidis & Emilija Beker Pucar & Slađana Srdić & Gabriela Ivan, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Advanced vs. Emerging Economies before and after the Crisis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(1), pages 79-106, Februar.
    16. Yingying Xu & Zhi-Xin Liu & Hsu-Ling Chang & Adelina Dumitrescu Peculea & Chi-Wei Su, 2017. "Does self-fulfilment of the inflation expectation exist?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1098-1113, March.
    17. Luis Alberto Delgado-de-la-Garza & Gonzalo Adolfo Garza-Rodríguez & Daniel Alejandro Jacques-Osuna & Alejandro Múgica-Lara & Carlos Alberto Carrasco, 2021. "Does the use of a big data variable improve monetary policy estimates? Evidence from Mexico," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 383-393.

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