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Effects of Banco de la Republica’s Communication on the Yield Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Julian A. Parra-Polania

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

Abstract

We analyze the effect on the yield curve of Banco de la Republica’s communication through two specific outlets, the minutes of the monetary policy meetings and the inflation reports during the period 2011-Q2 to 2018-Q4. We extract numeric information from the inflation reports’ fan charts, and narrative information -using Latent Dirichlet Allocation, a computational linguistics tool- from the text of both outlets. We use an event-study approach to analyze the impact on four specific maturities: one-year spot, three-year forward, five-year forward and five-year ahead five-year forward rates. We find no evidence that numeric information has any effect on market yields. Regarding narrative variables we find that (i) for the inflation report, there is a significant effect on just two yields (one-year spot and five-year forward), and (ii) for the minute, there is a significant effect on all yields. We believe that these results may be explained by the publication lag of the inflation report during the period of analysis.. **** RESUMEN: Analizamos el efecto, sobre la curva de rendimientos, de la comunicación del Banco de la República mediante dos tipos de documentos, las minutas de las reuniones de política monetaria y los informes de política monetaria (anteriormente informes sobre inflación) durante el periodo 2011-II a 2018-IV. Extraemos información numérica de los fan charts publicados en los informes de política monetaria e información narrativa –usando Latent Dirichlet Allocation, una herramienta de lingüística computacional- tanto de las minutas como de los informes. Mediante la metodología de estudio de eventos analizamos el impacto sobre cuatro diferentes tasas: spot a un año, forward a 3 años, forward a 5 años y forward a 5 años, dentro de 5 años. No encontramos evidencia de que la información numérica tenga algún efecto sobre estas tasas. Con respecto a las variables narrativas encontramos que (i) para los informes de política, hay un efecto significativo solo sobre dos de las tasas (spot a un año y forward a 5 años) y (ii) para las minutas hay un efecto significativo sobre las cuatro tasas. Creemos que estos resultados pueden explicarse por el rezago de publicación que tenía el informe de política monetaria durante el periodo analizado.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2020. "Effects of Banco de la Republica’s Communication on the Yield Curve," Borradores de Economia 1137, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1137
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1137
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Communication; monetary policy; text mining; event study; yield curve; comunicación; política monetaria; minería de texto; estudio de eventos; curva de rendimientos.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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