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The joint response of stock and foreign exchange markets to macroeconomic surprises: Using US and Japanese data

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  • Mun, Kyung-Chun

Abstract

This paper investigates the joint response of stock and foreign exchange (FX) market returns to macroeconomic surprises, employing a system method of estimation that allows for the cross-country and cross-market interaction for asset returns and risk premia. Using US and Japanese data, we find that US stock markets are asymmetrically responsive to domestic developments in output growth and interest rates but are not influenced by macroeconomic surprises from Japan. The surprise in the FX market seems to affect stock markets in the US and Japan, respectively. In particular, we find that the interest rate surprise in the US and inflation surprise in Japan tend to overstate the impact that these surprises would have on the respective stock market. The impact of the surprises would appear smaller if macroeconomic developments induced by the FX market were incorporated into the model.

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  • Mun, Kyung-Chun, 2012. "The joint response of stock and foreign exchange markets to macroeconomic surprises: Using US and Japanese data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 383-394.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:2:p:383-394
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.07.014
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    2. Égert, Balázs & Kočenda, Evžen, 2014. "The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 73-88.
    3. Naifar, Nader, 2016. "Do global risk factors and macroeconomic conditions affect global Islamic index dynamics? A quantile regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 29-39.
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    6. Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Kuo, I-Doun & Chiang, Thomas C., 2014. "What explains deviations in the unbiased expectations hypothesis? Market irrationality vs. the peso problem," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 172-190.
    7. Lu, Xinsheng & Sun, Xinxin & Ge, Jintian, 2017. "Dynamic relationship between Japanese Yen exchange rates and market anxiety: A new perspective based on MF-DCCA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 474(C), pages 144-161.
    8. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Monetary policy and the first- and second-moment exchange rate change during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-194.
    9. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou & Wu, Hong, 2014. "Emerging market currency exposure: Taiwan," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 47-61.
    10. Sun, Xinxin & Lu, Xinsheng & Yue, Gongzheng & Li, Jianfeng, 2017. "Cross-correlations between the US monetary policy, US dollar index and crude oil market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 326-344.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock markets; Foreign exchange markets; Macroeconomic surprises;

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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