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Do global risk factors and macroeconomic conditions affect global Islamic index dynamics? A quantile regression approach

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  • Naifar, Nader

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to explain global Dow Jones Islamic Market Index (DJIMI) dynamics across quantiles during the period of January 2003 to October 2014. Using quantile regression approach, we investigate the co-movement and the dependence structure between DJIMI returns and influential global financial market conditions, macroeconomic indicators and risk factors (major conventional stock market indices returns, global stock market uncertainty (VIX), crude oil prices, inflation rates, slope of the yield curves, investor sentiment indicator, and global sovereign credit risk represented by sovereign credit default swap (CDS) premiums). The empirical results demonstrate that conventional stock market returns, stock market implied volatility and the slope of the yield curve (as a proxy for future economic conditions) are significant for all the quantiles and display asymmetric tail dependence. During and after the global financial crisis, the sovereign credit risk factor has also been significant with positive coefficients, implying the impact of systemic nature of sovereign credit risk on explaining DJIMI returns. Moreover, the impact of oil prices and investor sentiment indicator is positive and significant but only for the lower quantiles.

Suggested Citation

  • Naifar, Nader, 2016. "Do global risk factors and macroeconomic conditions affect global Islamic index dynamics? A quantile regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 29-39.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:61:y:2016:i:c:p:29-39
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2015.10.004
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    4. Abdi, Aisha Aden & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Do macroeconomic variables affect stock–sukuk correlation in the regional markets? evidence from the GCC countries based on DOLS and FM-OLS," MPRA Paper 79753, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Asem Alhomaidi & M. Kabir Hassan & William J. Hippler, 2018. "The Effect of Implicit Market Barriers on Stock Trading and Liquidity," NFI Working Papers 2018-WP-02, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    6. El-Masry, Ahmed A. & de Mingo-López, Diego Víctor & Matallín-Sáez, Juan Carlos & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2016. "Environmental conditions, fund characteristics, and Islamic orientation: An analysis of mutual fund performance for the MENA region," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 174-197.
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    9. Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2017. "Geopolitical Risks and Movements in Islamic Bond and Equity Markets: A Note," Working Papers 201743, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Islamic indices; Investor sentiment; Sovereign credit risk; Implied volatility; Credit default swap; Global financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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