IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Unraveling the complex interrelationships between exchange rates and fundamentals

  • Murphy, Austin
  • Zhu, Yun (Ellen)
Registered author(s):

    This research investigates the intrinsic characteristics of currency values by fundamentally decomposing investor expectations on 16 currencies. The results on 195 exchange rates over several decades indicate investors perceive countries to be more likely to choose devaluation solutions to BOP problems when inflation is lower and when an alternative drop in real income growth is more "painful". In addition, empirical support is provided for the hypothesis that forward rates often appear biased because the distributional expectations incorporated into them include, for a country with a current account deficit, a small probability of a large spot decline that does not actually occur in most finite samples.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 1150-1160

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:6:p:1150-1160
    Contact details of provider: Web page:

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Jean-Pierre Danthine & John B. Donaldson & Paolo Siconolfi, 2005. "Distribution Risk and Equity Returns," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 05.10, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
    2. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
    3. Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    4. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-161.
    5. Crowder, William J. & Phengpis, Chanwit, 2007. "A re-examination of international inflation convergence over the modern float," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 125-139, April.
    6. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1.
    7. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Patureau, Lise & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2004. "Overshooting and the exchange rate disconnect puzzle: a reappraisal," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 615-643, June.
    8. Westbrook, Jilleen R, 1998. "Monetary Integration, Inflation Convergence and Output Shocks in the European Monetary System," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 138-44, January.
    9. Claessens, Stijn, 1991. "Balance of payments crises in an optimal portfolio model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 81-101, January.
    10. Jean-Olivier Hairault & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2004. "Overshooting and Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle: A Reappraisal," Macroeconomics 0410001, EconWPA.
    11. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    12. David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02.
    13. Inci, Ahmet Can & Lu, Biao, 2007. "Currency futures-spot basis and risk premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 180-197, April.
    14. Fukuta, Yuichi & Saito, Makoto, 2002. "Forward Discount Puzzle and Liquidity Effects: Some Evidence from Exchange Rates among the United States, Canada, and Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1014-33, November.
    15. Husted, Steven & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The Asian currency crash: were badly driven fundamentals to blame?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 537-550.
    16. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 1999. "The risk premium, exchange rate expectations, and the forward exchange rate: Estimates for the Yen-Dollar rate," MPRA Paper 9775, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Mark, Nelson C. & Moh, Young-Kyu, 2007. "Official interventions and the forward premium anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 499-522, September.
    18. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    19. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:6:p:1150-1160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.