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Unraveling the complex interrelationships between exchange rates and fundamentals

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  • Murphy, Austin
  • Zhu, Yun (Ellen)

Abstract

This research investigates the intrinsic characteristics of currency values by fundamentally decomposing investor expectations on 16 currencies. The results on 195 exchange rates over several decades indicate investors perceive countries to be more likely to choose devaluation solutions to BOP problems when inflation is lower and when an alternative drop in real income growth is more "painful". In addition, empirical support is provided for the hypothesis that forward rates often appear biased because the distributional expectations incorporated into them include, for a country with a current account deficit, a small probability of a large spot decline that does not actually occur in most finite samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Murphy, Austin & Zhu, Yun (Ellen), 2008. "Unraveling the complex interrelationships between exchange rates and fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1150-1160, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:6:p:1150-1160
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    Cited by:

    1. John Murphy, 2021. "Economics-2020. What Happens When Everything Shuts Down Except the “Money Printing Pressesâ€," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 1, pages 91-112, March.
    2. Chortareas, Georgios & Kapetanios, George, 2009. "Getting PPP right: Identifying mean-reverting real exchange rates in panels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-404, February.
    3. Kocenda, Evzen & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009. "Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2164-2173, November.
    4. Chortareas, Georgios & Kapetanios, George, 2009. "Getting PPP right: Identifying mean-reverting real exchange rates in panels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-404, February.
    5. Mun, Kyung-Chun, 2012. "The joint response of stock and foreign exchange markets to macroeconomic surprises: Using US and Japanese data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 383-394.

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