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Overshooting and Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle: A Reappraisal

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Olivier Hairault

    (EUREQUA)

  • Lise Patureau

    (THEMA)

  • Thepthida Sopraseuth

    (EPEE CEPREMAP)

Abstract

Transitions to floating exchange rate regimes have led to sharp increases in exchange rate volatilities with no corresponding changes in the distribution of macroeconomic fundamentals. In the spirit of Dornbusch (1976), we assess whether nominal exchange rate overshooting is responsible for this phenomenon. As long as uncovered interest rate parity holds, nominal exchange rate overshooting is linked to a persistent fall in the spread between domestic and foreign nominal interest rates. We thus develop a limited participation model in a small open economy setting. With small adjustment costs on money holdings, overshooting substantially contributes to the nominal exchange rate volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Olivier Hairault & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2004. "Overshooting and Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle: A Reappraisal," Macroeconomics 0410001, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0410001
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 33
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    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/mac/papers/0410/0410001.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Karamé, Frédéric & Patureau, Lise & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2008. "Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics: Does theory meet the data?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1041-1087, April.
    2. de Blas, Beatriz, 2010. "Exchange rate dynamics in economies with portfolio rigidities," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 366-382, June.
    3. Patureau, Lise, 2007. "Pricing-to-market, limited participation and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3281-3320, October.
    4. Murphy, Austin, 2008. "An empirical investigation of investor expectations in the currency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 108-133.
    5. Murphy, Austin & Zhu, Yun (Ellen), 2008. "Unraveling the complex interrelationships between exchange rates and fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1150-1160, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate disconnect puzzle; liquidity effect; overshooting; uncovered interest rate parity;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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