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Econometric Analysis of Present Value Models When the Discount Factor Is near One

  • Kenneth D. West

This paper develops asymptotic econometric theory to help understand data generated by a present value model with a discount factor near one. A leading application is to exchange rate models. A key assumption of the asymptotic theory is that the discount factor approaches 1 as the sample size grows. The finite sample approximation implied by the asymptotic theory is quantitatively congruent with modest departures from random walk behavior with imprecise estimation of a well-studied regression relating spot and forward exchange rates.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18247.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18247.

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Date of creation: Jul 2012
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Publication status: published as West, Kenneth D., 2012. "Econometric analysis of present value models when the discount factor is near one," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 86-97.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18247
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  1. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2004. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 628, Econometric Society.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March.
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1981. "A note on Wiener-Kolmogorov prediction formulas for rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 255-260.
  4. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
  5. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993. "The Long Memory of the Foreward Premium," Papers 9203, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  6. Bennett T. McCallum, 1992. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, 02.
  8. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  9. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  10. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  11. Lewis, K. & Evans, M.D.D., 1993. "Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?," Weiss Center Working Papers 93-12, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  12. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
  13. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Barberis, Nicholas & Thaler, Richard, 2003. "A survey of behavioral finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1053-1128 Elsevier.
  15. Alex Maynard & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 671-708.
  16. Bhar, Ramprasad & Kim, Suk-Joong & Pham, Toan M., 2004. "Exchange rate volatility and its impact on the transaction costs of covered interest rate parity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-525, December.
  17. Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2010. "Fractional integration and cointegration in stock prices and exchange rates," Working Papers halshs-00536140, HAL.
  18. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not As Bad As You Think," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 381-441 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
  21. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
  22. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
  23. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
  24. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:115-129 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  26. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
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