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Fractional integration and cointegration in stock prices and exchange rates

  • Marcel Aloy


    (DEFI, Université de la Méditerranée, France)

  • Mohamed Boutahar


    (GREQAM, Université de la Méditerranée, France)

  • Karine Gente


    (DEFI, Université de la Méditerranée, France)

  • Anne Péguin-feissolle


    (GREQAM, CNRS, France)

This paper examines the relationships between the CAC40 index, the Dow Jones index and the Euro/USD exchange rate using daily data over the period 1999-2008. We find that these variables are I(1) nonstationary series, but they are fractionally cointegrated: equilibrium errors exhibit slow mean reversion, responding slowly to shocks. Therefore, with regard to the recent empirical cointegration literature, taking into account fractional cointegration techniques appears as a promising way to study the long-run relationships between stock prices and exchange rates.

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Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 30 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 115-129

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00644
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  1. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2006. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Faculty Working Papers 16/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  2. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 379-404, April.
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  4. Angelos Kanas, 1998. "Linkages between the US and European equity markets: further evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 607-614.
  5. Carlos Velasco, 2003. "Gaussian Semi-parametric Estimation of Fractional Cointegration," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 345-378, 05.
  6. Binswanger, Mathias, 2000. "Stock market booms and real economic activity: Is this time different?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 387-415, October.
  7. Hassler, Uwe & Marmol, Francesc & Velasco, Carlos, 2002. "Residual Log-Periodogram Inference for Long-Run Relationships," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 115, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
  8. Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2007. "Local Whittle Analysis of Stationary Fractional Cointegration and the ImpliedRealized Volatility Relation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 427-446, October.
  9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "Deterministic versus Stochastic Seasonal Fractional Integration and Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1989, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  11. R. Smyth & M. Nandha, 2003. "Bivariate causality between exchange rates and stock prices in South Asia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 699-704.
  12. Sandra Chamberlain & John S. Howe & Helen Popper, 1995. "The exchange rate exposure of U.S. and Japanese banking institutions," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 95-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  13. Richard A. Ajayi & Mbodja Mougouė, 1996. "On The Dynamic Relation Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 193-207, 06.
  14. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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  16. Nieh, Chien-Chung & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2001. "Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for G-7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 477-490.
  17. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  18. Marinucci, D. & Robinson, P. M., 2001. "Semiparametric fractional cointegration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 225-247, November.
  19. D Marinucci & Peter M. Robinson, 2001. "Semiparametric fractional cointegration analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2269, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  20. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei & Hu, John Wei-Shan, 2000. "Causality and cointegration of stock markets among the United States, Japan and the South China Growth Triangle," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 281-297.
  21. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1031-1053, November.
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  23. Dittmann, Ingolf, 1998. "Fractional cointegration of voting and non-voting shares," Technical Reports 1998,40, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  24. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
  25. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, 2009. "Fractional Integration and Structural Breaks in U.S. Macro Dynamics," Faculty Working Papers 02/09, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  26. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993. "Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange RAte Dynamics," Papers 9103, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  27. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "Asymptotic normality of narrow-band least squares in the stationary fractional cointegration model and volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 343-371, July.
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  29. Gil-Alana, L.A., 2008. "Testing of seasonal integration and cointegration with fractionally integrated techniques: An application to the Danish labour demand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 326-339, March.
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