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Fractional cointegration of voting and non-voting shares

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  • Dittmann, Ingolf

Abstract

Voting and non-voting shares of ten German companies are analyzed for fractional cointegration. It turns out that seven pairs of price series are fractionally cointegrated, which means that for each pair there is a linear combination of the two series that is a long-memory process. If two stocks are fractionally cointegrated, future returns of at least one of the stocks can be predicted by past prices. This contradicts the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis. A simple trading strategy is proposed and analyzed; it leads to considerable excess returns in two out-of-sample evaluations.

Suggested Citation

  • Dittmann, Ingolf, 1998. "Fractional cointegration of voting and non-voting shares," Technical Reports 1998,40, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb475:199840
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    Cited by:

    1. Kellard, Neil & Dunis, Christian & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2010. "Foreign exchange, fractional cointegration and the implied-realized volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 882-891, April.
    2. Karin Niehoff, 2016. "Price Discovery in Voting and Non-Voting Stocks," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 17(3), pages 285-307, December.
    3. Kramer, Walter & Marmol, Francesc, 2004. "The power of residual-based tests for cointegration when residuals are fractionally integrated," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 63-69, January.
    4. Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Péguin-feissolle, 2010. "Fractional integration and cointegration in stock prices and exchange rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 115-129.
    5. Kellard, Neil & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2008. "Can exchange rate volatility explain persistence in the forward premium?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 714-728, September.
    6. Krämer Walter, 2002. "Statistische Besonderheiten von Finanzzeitreihen / Statistical Properties of Financial Time Series," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 222(2), pages 210-229, April.
    7. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:115-129 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jörg Breitung & Christian Wulff, 2001. "Non‐linear Error Correction and the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Case of German Dual‐Class Shares," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(4), pages 419-434, November.
    9. Uwe Hassler & Francesc Marmol & Carlos Velasco, 2008. "Fractional cointegration in the presence of linear trends," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(6), pages 1088-1103, November.

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