IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: Does one size fit all?

  • Aloy, Marcel
  • Boutahar, Mohamed
  • Gente, Karine
  • Péguin-Feissolle, Anne

This paper examines the time series behavior of monthly bilateral real exchange rates (RER) on a comprehensive sample of 78 industrialized and developing countries, using the US Dollar, the UK Pound and the German Deutsche Mark as numeraires. We suggest a three step testing procedure based on recently introduced econometric techniques, in order to assess the mean-reverting properties of the RER and to address the question of whether real exchange rates follow a non linear process or a long memory process. The main results are as follows. Firstly, most of the bilateral real exchange rates under study are not mean-reverting. Secondly, the nonlinear ESTAR type adjustment is far from being prominent. Finally, only few bilateral RER exhibit true long memory mean-reverting properties.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VB1-527VMF4-1/2/1c2595036aa829206a67f8084cefcc0e
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 1279-1290

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:1279-1290
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Shimotsu, Katsumi & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2006. "Local Whittle estimation of fractional integration and some of its variants," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 209-233, February.
  2. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2013. "How Puzzling Is The Ppp Puzzle? An Alternative Half‐Life Measure Of Convergence To Ppp," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 435-457, 04.
  3. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," NBER Working Papers 10607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "Deterministic versus Stochastic Seasonal Fractional Integration and Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1989, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1076-1093, October.
  6. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," NBER Working Papers 7577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2010. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation Of Fractional Integration With Unknown Mean And Time Trend," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(02), pages 501-540, April.
  9. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
  10. Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai, 2005. "Nominal Exchange Rate Flexibility and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment: Evidence from Dual Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 1512, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Robinson Kruse & Michael Frömmel & Lukas Menkhoff & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2009. "What do we know about real exchange rate non-linearities?," CREATES Research Papers 2009-50, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  13. Campbell, John & Mankiw, Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," Scholarly Articles 3122545, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  14. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1998. "Parity reversion in real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 597-614, August.
  16. Lee, D. & Schmidt, P., 1993. "On the Power of the KPSS Test of Stationarity Against Fractionally-Integrated Alternatives," Papers 9111, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  17. Katsumi Shimotsu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2000. "Local Whittle Estimation in Nonstationary and Unit Root Cases," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1266, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 2003.
  18. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, 2009. "Fractional Integration and Structural Breaks in U.S. Macro Dynamics," Faculty Working Papers 02/09, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  19. Gil-Alana, L A & Toro, J, 2002. "Estimation and Testing of ARFIMA Models in the Real Exchange Rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 279-92, October.
  20. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, . "The Sources and Nature of Long-Term Memory in the Business Cycle," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  21. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Non-Linearities And Fractional Integration In The Us Unemployment Rate," Public Policy Discussion Papers 04-17, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  22. Sollis, Robert, 2008. "U.S. dollar real exchange rates: Nonlinearity revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 516-528, June.
  23. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  24. Kanas, Angelos, 2006. "Purchasing Power Parity and Markov Regime Switching," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1669-1687, September.
  25. Frederic Bec & Melika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2004. "Tests for Unit-Root versus Threshold Specification With an Application to the Purchasing Power Parity Relationship," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 382-395, October.
  26. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  27. Charles Engel & James Morley, 2000. "The Adjustment of Prices and the Adjustment of the Exchange Rate," Working Papers 0009, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  28. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-12, January.
  29. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
  30. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
  31. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  32. Kiliç, Rehim, 2009. "Further on nonlinearity, persistence, and integration properties of real exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-221, April.
  33. Dufrénot, Gilles & Lardic, Sandrine & Mathieu, Laurent & Mignon, Valérie & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2008. "Explaining the European exchange rates deviations: Long memory or non-linear adjustment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 207-215, July.
  34. Joon Y. Park & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "Testing for a Unit Root against Transitional Autoregressive Models," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000316, UCLA Department of Economics.
  35. Gilles Dufrenot & Laurent Mathieu & Valerie Mignon & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2006. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates: some evidence from non-linear cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 203-229.
  36. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Perron, Pierre & Qu, Zhongjun, 2010. "Long-Memory and Level Shifts in the Volatility of Stock Market Return Indices," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 275-290.
  38. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  39. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, 01.
  40. Mark J. Holmes, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Fractional Integration of the Real Exchange Rate: New Evidence for Less Developed Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 125-135, June.
  41. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hegerty, Scott W. & Kutan, Ali M., 2009. "Is PPP sensitive to time-varying trade weights in constructing real effective exchange rates?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 1001-1008, August.
  42. Bergman, U. Michael & Hansson, Jesper, 2005. "Real exchange rates and switching regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 121-138, February.
  43. Choudhry, Taufiq & McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles, 1991. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Canadian Float in the 1950s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 558-63, August.
  44. El-Gamal, Mahmoud A. & Ryu, Deockhyun, 2006. "Short-memory and the PPP hypothesis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 361-391, March.
  45. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  46. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  47. Mark Taylor, 2006. "Real exchange rates and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-17.
  48. Smith, Aaron D., 2004. "Level Shifts and the Illusion of Long Memory in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 11974, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  49. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 1999. "Long memory or structural breaks: can either explain nonstationary real exchange rates under the current float?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 359-376, November.
  50. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December.
  51. J. Cunado & L. A. Gil-Alana & F. Perez de Gracia, 2007. "Testing for stock market bubbles using nonlinear models and fractional integration," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(16), pages 1313-1321.
  52. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, 08.
  53. Jean-Francois Villeneuve & Jagdish Handa, 2006. "Purchasing Power Parity as a long-term memory process: evidence from Canada," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 109-117.
  54. Mario Cerrato & Hyunsok Kim & Ronald Macdonald, 2010. "Three-Regime Asymmetric STAR Modeling and Exchange Rate Reversion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1447-1467, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:1279-1290. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.