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Nominal Exchange Rate Flexibility and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment: Evidence from Dual Exchange Rates in Developing Countries

  • Yin-Wong Cheung
  • Kon S. Lai

This study investigates whether exchange rate flexibility aids real exchange rate adjustment based on intra-period data on dual exchange rates from developing countries. Specifically, it analyzes whether the flexible parallel market rate produces faster or slower real exchange rate adjustment than the much less flexible official rate does. Half-life estimates of adjustment speeds are obtained using fractional time series analysis. We find no systematic evidence that greater exchange rate flexibility tends to produce faster or slower real exchange rate adjustment, albeit there is substantial heterogeneity in speed estimates across countries. With officially pegged exchange rates, developing countries often use parallel exchange markets as a back-door channel to facilitate real exchange rate adjustment, but the empirical evidence suggests that these parallel markets in most cases fail to help promote real rate adjustment.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1512.

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Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1512
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  1. Phylaktis, Kate, 1991. "The black market for dollars in Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 155-172, November.
  2. Balvers, Ronald J. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2002. "Government expenditure and equilibrium real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 667-692, October.
  3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai & Michael Bergman, 2003. "Dissecting the PPP Puzzle: The Unconventional Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustment," CESifo Working Paper Series 924, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Francis X. Diebold, 1990. "On maximum-likelihood estimation of the differencing parameter of fractionally integrated noise with unknown mean," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 34, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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  12. Benigno, Gianluca, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 473-502, April.
  13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December.
  14. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002. "The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
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  16. Pozo, Susan & Wheeler, Mark, 1999. "Expectations and the Black Market Premium," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 245-53, May.
  17. Kouretas, Georgios P & Zarangas, Leonidas P, 1998. "A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Parallel Foreign Exchange Markets for Dollars in Greece," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 261-76, July.
  18. Frenkel, Jacob & razin, assaf & Yuen, chi-wa, 1996. "Fiscal policies and growth in the world economy," MPRA Paper 22109, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  20. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-12, January.
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  25. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
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