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Nominal Exchange Rate Flexibility and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment: Evidence from Dual Exchange Rates in Developing Countries

  • Yin-Wong Cheung
  • Kon S. Lai

This study investigates whether exchange rate flexibility aids real exchange rate adjustment based on intra-period data on dual exchange rates from developing countries. Specifically, it analyzes whether the flexible parallel market rate produces faster or slower real exchange rate adjustment than the much less flexible official rate does. Half-life estimates of adjustment speeds are obtained using fractional time series analysis. We find no systematic evidence that greater exchange rate flexibility tends to produce faster or slower real exchange rate adjustment, albeit there is substantial heterogeneity in speed estimates across countries. With officially pegged exchange rates, developing countries often use parallel exchange markets as a back-door channel to facilitate real exchange rate adjustment, but the empirical evidence suggests that these parallel markets in most cases fail to help promote real rate adjustment.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2005/wp-cesifo-2005-07/cesifo1_wp1512.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1512.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1512
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  1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Diebold, Francis X., 1994. "On maximum likelihood estimation of the differencing parameter of fractionally-integrated noise with unknown mean," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 301-316, June.
  3. Yin-wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai & Michael Bergman, 2003. "Dissecting the PPP Puzzle: The Unconventional Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustments," Working Papers 102003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Wolf, Holger C., 1994. "International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1225-1244, June.
  5. Kouretas, Georgios P & Zarangas, Leonidas P, 1998. "A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Parallel Foreign Exchange Markets for Dollars in Greece," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 261-76, July.
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  7. Tanaka, Katsuto, 1999. "The Nonstationary Fractional Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 549-582, August.
  8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Benigno, Gianluca, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 473-502, April.
  11. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Mustafa, Chowdhury, 1991. "Long-run dynamics of black and official exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 392-405, September.
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  16. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Jacob Frenkel & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Fiscal Policies and Growth in the World Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262561042, June.
  18. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-12, January.
  19. Grilli, Vittorio & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1991. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the real exchange rate : Evidence from the United States and Great Britain, 1885-1986," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 191-212, April.
  20. Pozo, Susan & Wheeler, Mark, 1999. "Expectations and the Black Market Premium," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 245-53, May.
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  23. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1995. "Taxation and redistribution in an open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 961-979, May.
  24. Davide Fiaschi, 1996. "Fiscal policies and growth," Working Papers 261, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
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