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A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Parallel Foreign Exchange Markets for Dollars in Greece

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  • Kouretas, Georgios P
  • Zarangas, Leonidas P

Abstract

This paper examines the monetary model of exchange rate determination from a long-run perspective in the presence of a parallel or black market for US dollars in Greece using monthly data for the recent float, in four ways. First, unit root tests that maintain both stationarity and nonstationarity about either mean or trend are employed to determine the order of integration of our data. Second, using the Johansen's multivariate cointegration technique we found one significant cointegration vector. Johansen's FIML and Stock and Watson's (1993) DOLS approach were employed to estimate the cointegration coefficients. Third, formal stability tests as described by Hansen and Johansen (1993) were used, and it is shown that the dimension of the cointegration space may exhibit sample dependency, but the estimated coefficients are not unstable in recursive estimations. Finally, a new efficient and consistent test that maintains the null of cointegration developed by Shin (1994) was utilized, and once again the evidence in favour of cointegration was accepted. Copyright @ 1998 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suggested Citation

  • Kouretas, Georgios P & Zarangas, Leonidas P, 1998. "A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Parallel Foreign Exchange Markets for Dollars in Greece," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 261-276, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:3:y:1998:i:3:p:261-76
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    1. Kanas, Angelos & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2007. "Regime dependence between the official and parallel foreign currency markets for US dollars in Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 431-449, June.
    2. Milas, Costas & Otero, Jesus, 2003. "Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 165-179, January.
    3. Georgios Kouretas & Leonidas Zarangas, 2001. "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity and Structural Change: The Official and Parallel Foreign Exchange Markets For Dollars In Greece," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 109-128.
    4. Panayiotis Diamandis & Georgios Kouretas & Leonidas Zarangas, 2005. "Expectations and the black market premium for foreign currency in Greece," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 667-677.
    5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai, 2005. "Nominal Exchange Rate Flexibility and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment: Evidence from Dual Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 1512, CESifo.
    6. Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2010. "Black and official exchange rates in Morocco: an analysis of their long-run behaviour and short-run dynamics (1974-1992)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3481-3490.
    7. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2005. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in the parallel and official markets for foreign currency in Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 665-682, July.
    8. Milonas, Nikolaos /T & Papachristou, George & Roupas, Theodor /A, 2010. "Pension Funds under Investments Constraints: An Assessment of the Opportunity Cost to the Greek Social Security System," MPRA Paper 36702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2008. "Nominal exchange rate flexibility and real exchange rate adjustment: New evidence from dual exchange rates in developing countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 415-434, August.
    10. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2003. "Market efficiency, purchasing power parity, and the official and parallel markets for foreign currency in Latin America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-110.
    11. Ayla Oğuş Binatli & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2012. "Intertemporal Solvency of Turkey’s Current Account," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(1), pages 89-104, March.
    12. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Zarangas, Leonidas, 2007. "Dual foreign currency markets and the role of expectations: Evidence from the Pacific Basin countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 238-259, June.
    13. Panayiotis Diamantis & Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2001. "The Monetary Approach in the Presence of I(2) Components: A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Black Market for Foreign Currency in Latin America," Working Papers 0108, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    14. Hina, Hafsa & Qayyum, Abdul, 2015. "Exchange Rate Determination and Out of Sample Forecasting: Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 61997, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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