IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach

  • Milas, Costas
  • Otero, Jesus

In this paper we look at the long-run relationship between the parallel and the official exchange rate in Colombia over two regimes; a crawling peg period and a more flexible crawling band one. The existence of cointegration between the parallel and official exchange rates in Colombia is consistent with previous findings for other developing economies, and offers support for the view that the parallel market for foreign exchange is not informationally efficient, because past values of the two rates (and of the disequilibrium error) could be used for forecasting the parallel exchange rate. The fact that the parallel rate cointegrates with the official one also implies that the latter has a role to play in the evolution of the former. This should be kept in mind when the monetary authorities affect with their decisions the behaviour of the official exchange rate. Further, we look at the short-run adjustment process of the parallel rate both in a linear and a non-linear context. According to the empirical results, there is strong evidence in favour of non-linear adjustment over the crawling peg but not over the crawling band period. This should not come as a surprise. The first period has witnessed the operation of strict foreign controls that have caused distortions in the transition back to equilibrium, once disequilibrium has occurred. The non-linear adjustment reported in the paper, provides an empirical evidence of the complicated structure under which the exchange rate market operated. With the abolition of exchange rate controls and the introduction of more flexibility in the exchange rate market over the second period, these distortions have gradually been eliminated. As a result, the transition back to equilibrium does not longer seem to exhibit any complicated non-linear structure. Thus, the modelling exercise has showed that the change from the crawling peg exchange rate regime to a crawling band one did not affect the long-run equilibrium relationship betw

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VB1-46Y9W9W-8/2/3e3f2ad365898e5c9425c2649dda1154
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 20 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 165-179

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:20:y:2003:i:1:p:165-179
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Sebastian Edwards, 1985. "Commodity Export Prices and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: Coffee in Colombia," NBER Working Papers 1570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Siklos, Pierre L. & Granger, Clive W.J., 1997. "Regime-Sensitive Cointegration With An Application To Interest-Rate Parity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(03), pages 640-657, September.
  3. Jansen, Eilev S. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing Parameter Constancy and super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 53, Stockholm School of Economics.
  4. Michael Moore & Kate Phylaktis, 2000. "Black and official exchange rates in the Pacific Basin: some tests of dynamic behaviour," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 361-369.
  5. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Tse, Yiuman, 1996. "Cointegration tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 401-410, August.
  6. Ashworth, John & Evans, Lynne & Teriba, Ayo, 1999. "Structural breaks in parallel markets?: the case of Nigeria, 1980-1993," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 255-264, February.
  7. John Williamson, 1996. "Crawling Band as an Exchange Rate Regime: Lessons from Chile, Colombia and Israel, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 14, May.
  8. Baghestani, Hamid & Noer, John, 1993. "Cointegration analysis of the black market and official exchange rates in India," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 709-721.
  9. Jesus Otero, 1999. "The real exchange rate in Colombia: an analysis using multivariate cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 661-671.
  10. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  12. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  13. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Mustafa, Chowdhury, 1991. "Long-run dynamics of black and official exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 392-405, September.
  14. Dornbusch, Rudiger, et al, 1983. "The Black Market for Dollars in Brazil," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 25-40, February.
  15. George Kouretas & Leonidas Zarangas, . "A Cointegration Analysis Of The Official And Parallel Foreign Exchange Markets For Dollars In Greece," Working Papers 9512, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:20:y:2003:i:1:p:165-179. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.