IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v76y2019icp1-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How can a strong currency or drop in oil prices raise inflation and the black-market premium?

Author

Listed:
  • Cerra, Valerie

Abstract

Based on the case of Venezuela, an oil exporter with a multiple exchange rate regime, this paper explains two counterintuitive phenomena. First, a fall in oil revenue can drive a steep rise in inflation by reducing foreign exchange for imports and raising the fiscal deficit financed by money growth. Second, when foreign exchange is rationed, a devaluation of the official exchange rate could produce a transitory fall in inflation by reducing the fiscal deficit and subsidies for buying foreign exchange. The paper also shows that the black market exchange rate can be rising far faster than overall inflation if it is driven by prices in the most distorted goods markets. The channels emphasized in this paper for determining inflation and the black market exchange rate are novel in the literature and may provide avenues of future research on commodity exporters and foreign exchange constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerra, Valerie, 2019. "How can a strong currency or drop in oil prices raise inflation and the black-market premium?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-13.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:76:y:2019:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.05.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999317301062
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.05.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Milas, Costas & Otero, Jesus, 2003. "Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 165-179, January.
    2. Montiel, Peter & Ul Haque, Nadeem, 1991. "Dynamic responses to policy and exogenous shocks in an empirical developing country model with rational expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 201-218, April.
    3. Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-625, June.
    4. Lizondo, JoseSaul, 1987. "Exchange rate differential and balance of payments under dual exchange markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 37-53, June.
    5. Palma, Pedro A. & Fontiveros, Domingo, 1988. "A comparative sensitivity analysis of the MODVEN VII macroeconomic model for Venezuela," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 286-346, October.
    6. Saul Lizondo, Jose, 1987. "Unification of dual exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 57-77, February.
    7. Flood, Robert P., 1978. "Exchange rate expectations in dual exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 65-77, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aziza Syzdykova & Aktolkin Abubakirova & Lyazzat Kudabayeva & Ardak Zhantayeva & Aizhan Omarova, 2022. "Asymmetric Causality Relationship between Oil Prices and Inflation in BRIC Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 184-191, May.
    2. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kim, Won Joong, 2023. "How macroeconomic factors drive the linkages between inflation and oil markets in global economies? A multiscale analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 212-232.
    3. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Muhammad Tahir Suleman & Subhan Ullah & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2023. "Analyzing the connectedness between crude oil and petroleum products: Evidence from USA," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2278-2347, July.
    4. repec:aly:journl:202206 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Paulo Ferreira & Éder J. A. L. Pereira & Hernane B. B. Pereira, 2020. "The Exposure of European Union Productive Sectors to Oil Price Changes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goldberg, Linda S., 1995. "Exchange rate regime reforms with black market leakages," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 167-187, October.
    2. Pinto, Brian, 1988. "Black market premia, exchange rate unification, and inflation in sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 37, The World Bank.
    3. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    4. Papazoglou, Christos & Pentecost, Eric J., 2004. "The dynamic adjustment of a transition economy in the early stages of transformation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 547-561, September.
    5. Santiago Mosquera & Federico Sturzenegger, 2021. "Cepo para principantes," Working Papers 151, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Apr 2021.
    6. Leonardo Bartolini & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 2001. "Excess Volatility of Exchange Rates with Unobservable Fundamentals," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 518-530, August.
    7. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1991. "The macroeconomics of the public sector deficit : the case of Argentina," Policy Research Working Paper Series 632, The World Bank.
    8. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1989. "The external effects of public sector deficits," Policy Research Working Paper Series 299, The World Bank.
    9. Carlos Alfredo Rodríguez, 1993. "Money and Credit Under Currency Substitution," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 414-426, June.
    10. Sushanta Mallick & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Commodity Prices, Inflationary Pressures, and Monetary Policy: Evidence from BRICS Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 677-694, September.
    11. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2015. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3673-3695, July.
    12. Mr. Jacob A. Frenkel & Mr. Guillermo Calvo, 1991. "From Centrally-Planned to Market Economies: The Road from CPE to PCPE," IMF Working Papers 1991/017, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Azam, Jean-Paul, 1999. "Dollars for Sale: Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1843-1859, October.
    14. Onour, Ibrahim A, 2000. "Unification of Dual Foreign Exchange Markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 171-184.
    15. Corbo, Vittorio & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1994. "Macroeconomic adjustment to capital inflows : Latin American style versus East Asian style," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1377, The World Bank.
    16. Elhanan Helpman & Assaf Razin, 1977. "Towards a Consistent Comparison Between Alternative Exchange Rate Systems," Discussion Papers 276, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    17. Hali J. Edison & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1999. "Capital controls during financial crises: the cases of Malaysia and Thailand," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep, pages 1-36.
    18. Decaluwé, Bernard & Bhandari, Jagdeep S., 1985. "Le régime du double marché des changes sous les Tropiques : une analyse théorique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 61(4), pages 428-452, décembre.
    19. Tasadduq Imam, 2021. "Model selection for one‐day‐ahead AUD/USD, AUD/EUR forecasts," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1808-1824, April.
    20. Bordo, Michael D & Choudhri, Ehsan U, 1982. "Currency Substitution and the Demand for Money: Some Evidence for Canada," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 48-57, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Black market exchange rate; Venezuela; Foreign exchange rationing; Oil revenue;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • P4 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:76:y:2019:i:c:p:1-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.