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Black and official exchange rates in Morocco: an analysis of their long-run behaviour and short-run dynamics (1974-1992)

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  • Mina Baliamoune-Lutz

Abstract

Using Vector Error-Correction (VEC) model estimation on monthly data from Morocco for the period January 1974 to December 1992, this article tests the hypothesis that there is a long-run stable relationship between the official and the black-market exchange rates for US dollars. We also examine the short-run dynamics in the relationship between the two markets. The econometric results indicate that the two exchange rates are cointegrated. Furthermore, we reject weak exogeneity in the case of the official exchange rate, but fail to reject it in the case of the black-market rate. Granger causality tests show that the black-market rate causes the official exchange rate. The results seem to support the efficiency hypothesis, suggesting that participants in the black-market are able to anticipate changes in the official exchange rate. The findings also suggest that Morocco's decision (in January 1993) to introduce only current account convertibility and keep controls on capital accounts was wise.

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  • Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2010. "Black and official exchange rates in Morocco: an analysis of their long-run behaviour and short-run dynamics (1974-1992)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3481-3490.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:27:p:3481-3490
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840802112463
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    Cited by:

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    2. Alper Aslan & Ferit Kula, 2011. "Purchasing Power Parity in Eastern European Countries: Further Evidence from Black Market Exchange Rates," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 13(29), pages 287-294, February.
    3. Gina Pieters, 2016. "Does bitcoin reveal new information about exchange rates and financial integration?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 292, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Ferit Kula & Alper Aslan & lhan zt rk, 2014. "Long Run Tendencies and Short Run Adjustments Between Official and Black Market Exchange Rates in MENA Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 494-500.
    5. Ricky Chee Jiun Chia & Shiok Ye Lim & Sheue Li Ong, 2014. "Long-Run Validity of Purchasing Power Parity and Cointegration Analysis for Low Income African Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1438-1447.
    6. Tony Addison & Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2017. "Aid, the Real Exchange Rate and Why Policy Matters: The Cases of Morocco and Tunisia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 1104-1121, July.
    7. Tony Addison & Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2013. "Aid and Dutch Disease: Evidence from Moroccan and Tunisian Time-Series Data," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-132, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Minh Tam Bui, 2018. "Causality in Vietnam’s Parallel Exchange Rate System during 2005–2011: Policy Implications for Macroeconomic Stability," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-20, December.

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