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Foreign Exchange Controls and the Parallel Market Premium

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  • Mohsen Fardmanesh
  • Seymour Douglas

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between the official and parallel exchange rates, using cointegration, Granger causality, and reduced form methods on data from three Caribbean countries, Jamaica, Guyana, and Trinidad & Tobago, for the period 1985–93. Where the central bank follows a passive policy of infrequent and large adjustments to the official rate, changes in the official rate Granger causes changes in the parallel rate, and larger disparities prevail between the two rates. Foreign exchange controls, expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, and changes of government mostly have a positive effect on the parallel market premium, with foreign exchange controls exerting the strongest impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Fardmanesh & Seymour Douglas, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Controls and the Parallel Market Premium," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 72-89, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:12:y:2008:i:1:p:72-89
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2008.00429.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    3. Patton Culbertson, W., 1989. "Empirical regularities in black markets for currency," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(12), pages 1907-1919, December.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ge Gao & Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy & Oleksandr Talavera, 2023. "Can central banks be heard over the sound of gunfire?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(S1), pages 183-203, December.

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