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Exchange Rate Rules, Black Market Premia and Fiscal Deficits: The Bolivian Hyperinflation

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  • Homi Kharas
  • Brian Pinto

Abstract

With dual exchange rates, where a managed official exchange rate co-exists with a floating black market rate, a given budget deficit may be consistent with many different inflation rates rather than two, which is the normal result in closed economy systems. Further, all these inflation equilibria are saddle-point stable. A policy of adjusting the official exchange rate towards the black market rate may cause the economy to converge to a high-inflation, saddle-point stable equilibrium where money inflation elasticity exceeds unity. The analytics are motivated and illustrated by the Bolivian hyperinflation of 1984–1985.

Suggested Citation

  • Homi Kharas & Brian Pinto, 1989. "Exchange Rate Rules, Black Market Premia and Fiscal Deficits: The Bolivian Hyperinflation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(3), pages 435-447.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:56:y:1989:i:3:p:435-447.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Paul Azam, 1995. "Dollars en solde : politique de change et inflation au Nigéria (1980-1993)," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(3), pages 727-737.
    2. Azam, Jean-Paul, 1999. "Dollars for Sale: Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1843-1859, October.
    3. Ibrahim ONOUR, 2018. "Technical Trading Rules And Trading Signals In The Black Market For Foreign Exchange In Sudan," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 25-31.
    4. Onour, Ibrahim A, 2000. "Unification of Dual Foreign Exchange Markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 171-184.
    5. Anuwat PUE-ON & Bert D WARD, 2009. "The Impact of Capital Intensive Farming in Thailand: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," EcoMod2009 21500076, EcoMod.
    6. Canuto, Otaviano & Pinto, Brian & Prasad, Mona, 2012. "Orderly sovereign debt restructuring : missing in action !," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6054, The World Bank.
    7. Sarmiento, Julio & Cayon, Edgardo & Collazos, María & Sandoval, Juan S., 2017. "Positive asymmetric information in volatile environments: The black market dollar and sovereign bond yields in Venezuela," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 547-555.
    8. Mohsen Fardmanesh & Seymour Douglas, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Controls, Fiscal and Monetary Policy, and the Black Market Premium," Working Papers 876, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    9. Ibrahim A. Onour & Bruno S. Sergi, 2021. "The impact of a political shock on foreign exchange markets in a small and open economy: A dynamic modelling approach," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(3), pages 137-152.
    10. Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2010. "Black and official exchange rates in Morocco: an analysis of their long-run behaviour and short-run dynamics (1974-1992)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3481-3490.
    11. Morris, Stephen, 1995. "Inflation dynamics and the parallel market for foreign exchange," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 295-316, April.
    12. Onour, Ibrahim & Cameron, Norman, 1997. "Parallel Market Premia and Misalignment of Official Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 15537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. José F. Alonso & Armando M. Lago, 1995. "A First Approximation Model of Money, Prices and Exchange Rates in Revolutionary Cuba," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 5.
    14. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, 1995. "Monetary shocks and exchange rate dynamics with informal currency markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 211-226.
    15. Linda S. Goldberg & Ildar Karimov, 1992. "Black-Markets for Currency, Hoarding Activity and Currency Reform," NBER Working Papers 4153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Onour, Ibrahim, 2010. "South Sudan Referundum: A Macroeconomic Analysis of Post-Secession Scenario," MPRA Paper 29897, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Onour, Ibrahim, 2011. "Financial stability in small open economy under political uncertainty," MPRA Paper 29883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Kiguel, Miguel A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1994. "Parallel exchange rates in developing countries : lessons from eight case studies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1265, The World Bank.
    19. Fofack, Hippolyte & Nolan, John P., 2001. "Distribution of parallel exchange rates in African countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 987-1001, December.
    20. Minh Tam Bui, 2018. "Causality in Vietnam’s Parallel Exchange Rate System during 2005–2011: Policy Implications for Macroeconomic Stability," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-20, December.
    21. Zhang, Zhichao, 2001. "Choosing an exchange rate regime during economic transition: The case of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 203-226.

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