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Financial stability in small open economy under political uncertainty

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  • Onour, Ibrahim

Abstract

In this paper we model financial stability in small open economy enduring political uncertainty and operating under dual exchange markets, a free exchange rate applicable to wide range of private capital transactions and controlled exchange rate applicable to some official transactions. The finding in the paper indicate, given that capital outflow is kept at minimal level there exist steady state equilibrium exchange rates. The level of initial official reserves determine the length of time needed for the process to adjust towards a new steady state equilibrium. The lower initial official reserve level is, the longer time is needed to recover from a shock and adjust towards a new equilibrium steady state. When fiscal deficit and declining official reserves force the government to abandon the dual exchange system in favor of floating single exchange rate system, our model predict depreciation of foreign exchange rates is identical to domestic money growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Onour, Ibrahim, 2011. "Financial stability in small open economy under political uncertainty," MPRA Paper 29883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29883
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kiguel, Miguel & O'Connell, Stephen A, 1995. "Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 10(1), pages 21-52, February.
    2. Pinto, Brian, 1989. "Black Market Premia, Exchange Rate Unification, and Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 3(3), pages 321-338, September.
    3. Ibrahim Onour, 2000. "Unification of Dual Foreign Exchange Markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 171-184, October.
    4. Rudiger Dornbusch & Daniel Valente Dantas & Clarice Pechman & Roberto de Rezende Rocha & Demetrio SimÅes, 1983. "The Black Market for Dollars in Brazil," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 25-40.
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    6. Saul Lizondo, Jose, 1987. "Unification of dual exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 57-77, February.
    7. Onour, Ibrahim & Cameron, Norman, 1997. "Parallel Market Premia and Misalignment of Official Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 15537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Homi Kharas & Brian Pinto, 1989. "Exchange Rate Rules, Black Market Premia and Fiscal Deficits: The Bolivian Hyperinflation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(3), pages 435-447.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    parallel rate; official rate; Stability; Steady-state.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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