Intertemporal Solvency of Turkey’s Current Account
We test for sustainability of Turkey’s current account position between 1987 and 2009 using the intertemporal solvency model of Craig S. Hakkio and Mark Rush (1991) and Steven Husted (1992). According to this approach, the intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied if there is cointegration between exports and imports+ (which include imports, net interest income and unilateral transfer payments). We test for, and find evidence of, cointegration using the standard Johansen test as well as the Allan W. Gregory and Bruce Hansen (1996) test. The latter allows for a structural break in the cointegrating relation. Further, dynamic GLS estimation shows a statistically significant relation between exports and imports+, although, we reject strong current account sustainability. Our evidence suggests that Turkey remains vulnerable to reversals in capital flows, but we believe this vulnerability will diminish as the service component of trade increases.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008.
"Intertemporal solvency of Turkey’s current account,"
0805, Izmir University of Economics.
- Ayla Oğuş Binatli & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2012. "Intertemporal Solvency of Turkey’s Current Account," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(1), pages 89-104, March.
- Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin & Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2001. "Are current account deficits sustainable?: Evidence from panel cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 219-224, August.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992.
"Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts,"
RCER Working Papers
335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Leachman, Lori L & Thorpe, Michael, 1998. "Intertemporal Solvency in the Small Open Economy of Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(226), pages 231-42, September.
- Arize, Augustine C., 2002. "Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 101-115, April.
- Mark J. Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis & Jesus Otero, 2009.
"On the stationarity of current account deficits in the European Union,"
Discussion Paper Series
2009_18, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Dec 2009.
- Mark J. Holmes & Jes�s Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "On the Stationarity of Current Account Deficits in the European Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 730-740, 09.
- Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "On the Stationarity of Current Account Deficits in the European Union," Working Paper Series 05_10, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003.
"On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries,"
Journal of Asian Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
- Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2002. "On the Sustainability of Current Account Deficits: Evidence from Four ASEAN Countries," Working Papers 0062, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2002.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993.
"A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Tom Doan, . "SWDOLS: RATS procedure to estimate cointegrating vectors using dynamic OLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00207, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Huseyin Kalyoncu, 2005.
"Sustainability of Current Account for Turkey: Intertemporal Solvency Approach,"
Prague Economic Papers,
University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(1), pages 82-88.
- Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2005. "Sustainability of Current Account for Turkey: Intertemporal Solvency Approach," MPRA Paper 1220, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Heejoon Kang, 1999. "The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 325-346, July.
- Manuchehr Irandoust & Johan Ericsson, 2004. "Are Imports and Exports Cointegrated? An International Comparison," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 49-64, 02.
- Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "Analyzing the Present Sustainability of Turkey’s Current Account Position," Working Papers 0803, Izmir University of Economics.
- Steven Cook, 2004. "Spurious rejection by cointegration tests incorporating structural change in the cointegrating relationship," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(14), pages 879-884.
- Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 543-568, November.
- Kouretas, Georgios P & Zarangas, Leonidas P, 1998.
"A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Parallel Foreign Exchange Markets for Dollars in Greece,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 261-76, July.
- George Kouretas & Leonidas Zarangas, . "A Cointegration Analysis Of The Official And Parallel Foreign Exchange Markets For Dollars In Greece," Working Papers 9512, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
- Huseyin Kalyoncu & Ilhan Ozturk, 2010. "Sustainability of current account for Latin America and Caribbean countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 781-785.
- Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nicholas Apergis & Konstantinos Katrakilidis & Nicholas Tabakis, 2000. "Current account deficit sustainability: The case of Greece," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 599-603.
- Tuck Cheong Tang, 2006. "A new approach to examining the sustainability of external imbalances: the case of Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 287-292.
- Mark J. Holmes, 2006. "How Sustainable Are Oecd Current Account Balances In The Long Run?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(5), pages 626-643, 09.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:59:y:2012:i:1:p:89-104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ivana Horvat)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ivana Horvat to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.