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Estimation and Testing of ARFIMA Models in the Real Exchange Rate


  • Gil-Alana, L A
  • Toro, J


The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis is one of the most important theoretical relationships in international economics. However, its empirical support remains controversial. We propose an alternative way of modelling the real exchange rate in five industrialized countries in relation to the US dollar, by means of fractionally integrated ARIMA models (i.e. ARFIMA). This approach allows us to capture the low-frequency dynamics relevant for examination of the long-run parity. A crucial fact when estimating with parametric approaches is that the model must be correctly specified, otherwise the estimates are likely to be inconsistent. In fact, misspecification of the short-run components of the series can invalidate the estimation of its long-run behaviour. We propose a model selection criterion based on LR tests on nested parametric hypotheses along with other several likelihood-based criteria. As a validation method of the specified model, we suggest the use of Robinson's (1994) tests. Our empirical results indicate that the PPP might hold as a long-run proposition. Copyright @ 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suggested Citation

  • Gil-Alana, L A & Toro, J, 2002. "Estimation and Testing of ARFIMA Models in the Real Exchange Rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 279-292, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:7:y:2002:i:4:p:279-92

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Romano, Joseph P & Wolf, Michael, 2001. "Subsampling Intervals in Autoregressive Models with Linear Time Trend," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1283-1314, September.
    2. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
    3. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
    4. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "The Grid Bootstrap And The Autoregressive Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 594-607, November.
    5. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aloy, Marcel & Boutahar, Mohamed & Gente, Karine & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2011. "Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: Does one size fit all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1279-1290, May.
    2. Julián Ramajo Hernández(1) & Montserrat Ferré Carracedo(2), "undated". "Testing For Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity In The Post Bretton Woods Era: Evidence From Old And New Tests," Working Papers 24-05 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.

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