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Contagion Across and Integration of Central and Eastern European Stock Markets: Evidence from Intraday Data

  • Balazs Egert
  • Evzen Kocenda

We analyze interrelations between three stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe and, in addition, interconnections which may exist between Western European (DAX, CAC, UKX) and Central and Eastern European stock markets (BUX, PX-50, WIG20). The novelty of our paper rests mainly on the use of the five-minute tick intraday price data from the mid-2003 to the early 2005 for stock indices and on the wide range of econometric techniques employed. We find no robust cointegration relationship for any of the stock index pairs or for any of the extended specifications. There are signs of short-term spillover effects both in terms of stock returns and stock price volatility. Granger causality tests show the presence of bidirectional causality for returns as well as volatility series. The results based on a VAR framework indicate a more limited number of short-term relationships between the stock markets. In general, it appears that spillover effects are stronger from volatility to volatility than contagion effects from return to return series.

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Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp798.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2005-798
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  1. Tse, Yiuman & Wu, Chunchi & Young, Allan, 2003. "Asymmetric information transmission between a transition economy and the U.S. market: evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-332, December.
  2. Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2000. "The Evolution of Stock Markets in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 456-472, September.
  3. Juraj Valachy & Evžen Ko?enda, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Volatility: Comparison of the Snake and Visegrad," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-622, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
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